Sibylline Insight Series
Sibylline Podcast - North Korea - Re-Escalation Of Tensions Suggests Long-Term Regional Security Threat Likely To Persist

Sibylline Podcast - North Korea - Re-Escalation Of Tensions Suggests Long-Term Regional Security Threat Likely To Persist

May 31, 2018

Tensions have risen again on the Korean Peninsula, threatening the recent rapprochement and culminating in the potential cancellation of the Kim-Trump summit. We evaluate the current situation, exploring the reasons behind the deterioration of relations, as well as the broader implications.

Key points include:

• Understanding Trump’s decision to cancel the summit.
• Considering whether or not the summit is still likely to take place.
• The implications of cooling relations for the regional security environment.
• The consequences of the current situation for the North Korean regime.
• The significance of the rising tensions for Sino-US relations.
• The likely trajectory of North Korean behaviour going forward.

 

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk  

We will be developing our podcasts over the coming months, with an emphasis on delivering greater value for security professionals. We look forward to sharing with you the evolution of this product and welcome feedback and comments. If you would like us to address a particular topic please do let us know.

Sibylline Podcast – Korean Peninsula - Whilst Tensions Remain Low Long Term Uncertainty Over Denuclearisation Persists

Sibylline Podcast – Korean Peninsula - Whilst Tensions Remain Low Long Term Uncertainty Over Denuclearisation Persists

May 4, 2018

Despite the positive post-summit atmosphere on the Korean Peninsula, there are ongoing uncertainties with regard to the prospects for denuclearisation. Relations are likely to cool should the Trump-Kim summit fail to produce concrete results. We consider the implications for regional security, along with other potential flashpoints in the Asia Pacific.

Key points include:

• The reasons behind Kim Jong-un’s apparent volte face
• China’s role in the current détente and upcoming negotiations
• The most likely outcome of the US-North Korea summit
• How the North Korean situation will impact regional security going forward
• How maritime tensions in the South China Sea, Abe’s desire to remilitarise Japan and the China/Taiwan situation may also impact Asia Pacific security

 

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk  

We will be developing our podcasts over the coming months, with an emphasis on delivering greater value for security professionals. We look forward to sharing with you the evolution of this product and welcome feedback and comments. If you would like us to address a particular topic please do let us know.

Sibylline Podcast – North Korea – Short Term Stability Will Not Reduce Long Term Risk of Conflict

Sibylline Podcast – North Korea – Short Term Stability Will Not Reduce Long Term Risk of Conflict

January 18, 2018

As negotiations with North Korea enter a period of détente, we look at the short term risk notably around the Winter Olympic Games, and what it means to the longer term threat. Key points include:

  • Recent signs of a diplomatic thaw
  • Expected short term stability
  • The longer term context and predicted flashpoints