Sibylline Podcast – Iran/EU – Introduction of INSTEX Unlikely to Restore EU-Iran Business Environment

February 6, 2019

On 31 January, France, Germany and the UK launched a special purpose vehicle to facilitate trade between the EU and Iran. The vehicle, termed the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX) will initially be applicable for transactions involving humanitarian aid, food and pharmaceuticals, with the potential to extend to cover other industries in the coming months. Here we discuss the drivers behind INSTEX and its implications on the regional and business environment both in Europe and the Middle East.

 

Key points include:

  • How and why INSTEX was introduced and current EU policy towards Iran
  • Implications for Iran’s socio-economic health and domestic stability
  • The likely trajectory of EU-Iranian relations amid renewed US-imposed sanctions
  • The future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) amid rising regional tensions

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

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Sibylline Podcast – Syria – Multifaceted nature of US military withdrawal elevates prospects of escalation

January 25, 2019

Since the announcement of the US’ intended military withdrawal in Syria, regional stakeholders have intensified their political wrangling over influence and power in the region. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan met in Moscow on 23 January, where questions over the future of a planned security zone in Idlib dominated the discussion.

Key points include:

  • The changing nature of the Syrian conflict and how this may develop throughout the coming year
  • Regional and international ramifications of persistent divisions over the conflict
  • The likely trajectory for Syrian reconstruction throughout the coming year amid the prospects of escalation
  • Long-term implications for businesses seeking to re-engage with Syria

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

 
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Sibylline Podcast – Canada/US/China- Multitude of Ongoing Diplomatic, Economic and Security Issues Raise Risks for North American Nationals Over Coming Weeks

January 18, 2019

The 17 January warnings made by Chinese Ambassador to Canada Lu Shaye exacerbated the deterioration in relations between the two countries. The incident adds to the recent attention given to relations between the US, Canada, and China.

In this podcast we break down the areas of concern between the countries into three different categories: the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou and resulting fallout, ongoing Sino-American trade negotiations, and US-driven national security concerns regarding Chinese companies. After analysing these three categories, we give our predictions on how they will evolve, and highlight associated risks to Canadian and American companies and individuals.

Key points include:

  • Analysis of the relationship between the scrutiny of Huawei, ongoing trade negotiations, and concerns over espionage and intellectual property theft
  • Implications for US and Canadian travelers and operations in the China
  • Predictions regarding US government policy and oversight regarding Chinese firms in the coming months

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

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Sibylline Podcast – Ukraine – Growing Tensions with Russia Shape Pre-Election Environment

December 11, 2018

The 25 November seizure of three Ukrainian naval vessels by Russian forces in the Kerch Strait has further exacerbated tensions between Kyiv and Moscow, with Ukraine implementing martial law and banning Russians from entering the country.

In this podcast we look at how these events are shaping the operating environment ahead of the 31 March presidential election and look at the risks of further disruption, the threat to government stability, and impacts on regional business operations.

Key points include:

  • Analysis of the Azov incident and subsequent Ukrainian reactions
  • The implications of the measures in Ukraine and the region
  • A look ahead to Ukraine’s elections and potential flashpoints.

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

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Sibylline Podcast – France – Further Unrest Likely Despite Mitigating Measures

December 4, 2018

On 4 December, Prime Minister Édouard Philippe announced a 6-month suspension of the fuel tax and other appeasing measures in response to recent violent unrest in France. We expect this will help reduce the numbers of demonstrators in the streets, though further disruption and elevated property damage risks are likely to endure.

Key points include:

  • Analysis of key actors and agendas in the recent protests
  • Assessment of the government response and its consequences  
  • Implications for the long-term unrest risks in France

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

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Sibylline Podcast - South Asia - Ethno-Religious Tension as a Political Tool

November 30, 2018

Sri Lanka’s ongoing political deadlock and recent anti-blasphemy protests in Pakistan underscore the willingness of powerful groups and individuals to exploit religious fault lines in order to further a political agenda. In this podcast we examine the recent evolution of this trend in South Asia and explore the affiliated security risks.

Key points include:

  • The presence of more hard-line religious sentiment in Pakistan
  • The resurgence of ethno-religious tensions in Sri Lanka
  • The likelihood of Hindu Nationalism increasing ahead of India’s 2019 elections

 

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

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Sibylline Podcast – Germany - Merkel Withdrawal Adds to Moderate Political Uncertainty

November 6, 2018

Following Chancellor Angela Merkel’s 29 October announcement that she will not stand for re-election as CDU party leader in the upcoming vote, we look at her most likely successors and analyse the long-term impacts on the political and economic situation in Germany and the European Union.

Key points include:

  • Analysis of the upcoming CDU leadership election
  • Drivers of the main political dynamics in Germany
  • Viability of the Merkel cabinet in 2019 and beyond
  • Implications for EU economic stability and migration cooperation

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

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Sibylline Podcast – Syria – Improved regional trade likely as Idlib ceasefire holds following Istanbul summit

November 2, 2018

Following on from the 27 October summit in Istanbul that featured Turkish, Russian, French and German leadership this podcast asks what is next for the Syrian conflict.We assess the meeting itself and viability of the Idlib ceasefire, looking at the roles of Turkey, Iran and Russia in the future of the conflict and what this means for potential short and long term economic and security developments both in Syria and the wider region.

Key Points Include:

  • What the Idlib ceasefire means for the principle participants
  • The role of Russia, Iran and Turkey in the future of the Syrian conflict
  • Scope for an enduring diplomatic solution and possible reconstruction
  • The economic opportunities and impact on regional supply chains of the current ceasefire
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Sibylline Podcast – Saudi Arabia – Controversy Surrounding Ongoing Khashoggi Case Anticipated to Elevate Short-term Reputational Risks

October 24, 2018

Since 2 October, Saudi Arabia has experienced significant international criticism over the death of popular journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul, Turkey. On 23 October, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan reaffirmed Ankara’s willingness to cooperate with the investigation, whilst pressuring Riyadh for more transparency regarding several key features about the case.

In this podcast we discuss the short and medium term ramifications from a regional and international perspective.

Key points include:

  • An overview of the situation and analysis of Erdogan’s speech
  • Political implications for Saudi-Turkish-US relations
  • Implications for commercial interests in Saudi Arabia and Turkey

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

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Sibylline Podcast - Mozambique – Local Elections Unlikely to Undermine Ongoing Peace Process

October 12, 2018

On 10 October, Mozambique held local elections. Despite concerns of a repetition of the violence of 2014’s polls, the campaign and polling day were broadly peaceful save for sporadic incidents of unrest.

In this podcast we analyse these developments, and look at what they mean for the future of the peace process and other challenges going forward.

Key points include:

• How the election evolved
• How the election may affect the peace process
• The broader outlook for Mozambique

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

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