Sibylline Podcast – Ukraine – Growing Tensions with Russia Shape Pre-Election Environment

December 11, 2018

The 25 November seizure of three Ukrainian naval vessels by Russian forces in the Kerch Strait has further exacerbated tensions between Kyiv and Moscow, with Ukraine implementing martial law and banning Russians from entering the country.

In this podcast we look at how these events are shaping the operating environment ahead of the 31 March presidential election and look at the risks of further disruption, the threat to government stability, and impacts on regional business operations.

Key points include:

  • Analysis of the Azov incident and subsequent Ukrainian reactions
  • The implications of the measures in Ukraine and the region
  • A look ahead to Ukraine’s elections and potential flashpoints.

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

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Sibylline Podcast – France – Further Unrest Likely Despite Mitigating Measures

December 4, 2018

On 4 December, Prime Minister Édouard Philippe announced a 6-month suspension of the fuel tax and other appeasing measures in response to recent violent unrest in France. We expect this will help reduce the numbers of demonstrators in the streets, though further disruption and elevated property damage risks are likely to endure.

Key points include:

  • Analysis of key actors and agendas in the recent protests
  • Assessment of the government response and its consequences  
  • Implications for the long-term unrest risks in France

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

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Sibylline Podcast - South Asia - Ethno-Religious Tension as a Political Tool

November 30, 2018

Sri Lanka’s ongoing political deadlock and recent anti-blasphemy protests in Pakistan underscore the willingness of powerful groups and individuals to exploit religious fault lines in order to further a political agenda. In this podcast we examine the recent evolution of this trend in South Asia and explore the affiliated security risks.

Key points include:

  • The presence of more hard-line religious sentiment in Pakistan
  • The resurgence of ethno-religious tensions in Sri Lanka
  • The likelihood of Hindu Nationalism increasing ahead of India’s 2019 elections

 

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

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Sibylline Podcast – Germany - Merkel Withdrawal Adds to Moderate Political Uncertainty

November 6, 2018

Following Chancellor Angela Merkel’s 29 October announcement that she will not stand for re-election as CDU party leader in the upcoming vote, we look at her most likely successors and analyse the long-term impacts on the political and economic situation in Germany and the European Union.

Key points include:

  • Analysis of the upcoming CDU leadership election
  • Drivers of the main political dynamics in Germany
  • Viability of the Merkel cabinet in 2019 and beyond
  • Implications for EU economic stability and migration cooperation

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

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Sibylline Podcast – Syria – Improved regional trade likely as Idlib ceasefire holds following Istanbul summit

November 2, 2018

Following on from the 27 October summit in Istanbul that featured Turkish, Russian, French and German leadership this podcast asks what is next for the Syrian conflict.We assess the meeting itself and viability of the Idlib ceasefire, looking at the roles of Turkey, Iran and Russia in the future of the conflict and what this means for potential short and long term economic and security developments both in Syria and the wider region.

Key Points Include:

  • What the Idlib ceasefire means for the principle participants
  • The role of Russia, Iran and Turkey in the future of the Syrian conflict
  • Scope for an enduring diplomatic solution and possible reconstruction
  • The economic opportunities and impact on regional supply chains of the current ceasefire
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Sibylline Podcast – Saudi Arabia – Controversy Surrounding Ongoing Khashoggi Case Anticipated to Elevate Short-term Reputational Risks

October 24, 2018

Since 2 October, Saudi Arabia has experienced significant international criticism over the death of popular journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul, Turkey. On 23 October, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan reaffirmed Ankara’s willingness to cooperate with the investigation, whilst pressuring Riyadh for more transparency regarding several key features about the case.

In this podcast we discuss the short and medium term ramifications from a regional and international perspective.

Key points include:

  • An overview of the situation and analysis of Erdogan’s speech
  • Political implications for Saudi-Turkish-US relations
  • Implications for commercial interests in Saudi Arabia and Turkey

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

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Sibylline Podcast - Mozambique – Local Elections Unlikely to Undermine Ongoing Peace Process

October 12, 2018

On 10 October, Mozambique held local elections. Despite concerns of a repetition of the violence of 2014’s polls, the campaign and polling day were broadly peaceful save for sporadic incidents of unrest.

In this podcast we analyse these developments, and look at what they mean for the future of the peace process and other challenges going forward.

Key points include:

• How the election evolved
• How the election may affect the peace process
• The broader outlook for Mozambique

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

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Sibylline Podcast – Brazil – Elections likely to go to second round with a credible chance of a Haddad Presidency

October 3, 2018

Brazil goes to the polling booths on 7 October in a General Election. Right wing presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro and Workers’ Party nomination Fernando Haddad have a strong lead in sentiment polls, and a second round vote is broadly anticipated on 28 October. In this podcast we look at the potential ultimate outcomes and what they would mean for the future of Brazil’s security and operating environment.

Key points include:

  • Immediate term issues around polling day
  • Likely outcomes of round one
  • Possible outcomes of round two
  • What a Haddad presidency might look like
  • What a Bolsonaro presidency might look like

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

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Sibylline Podcast – Japan – Economic and foreign policy continuity expected during Abe’s highly anticipated final term

September 19, 2018

Incumbent Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is highly likely to win tomorrow’s party leadership contest, thus enabling him to retain the premiership for a third and final term.

In this podcast, we discuss what such an outcome will mean for Japan’s economic, foreign and defence policy, and how this will impact Japan’s socio-economic health as well as the broader regional environment.

Key points include:

  • Why Abe’s victory seems so certain
  • The challenges to Abe’s attempts at economic reform
  • A likely continuation in Japan’s pragmatic foreign policy
  • Anticipated resistance to attempted constitutional change

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

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Sibylline Podcast - Russia/China - The Vostok Military Exercises and the Evolving Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership

September 14, 2018

With Russia’s Vostok military exercises taking place this week - on the grandest scale since the Cold War era and involving China for the first time – we discuss the domestic significance as well as the evolving relationship between Moscow and Beijing. With signs of greater cooperation, as well as numerous potential points of contention, we consider how best to interpret the relationship and how it is likely to progress.

Key points include:

  • Russia’s domestic economic problems
  • Increasingly strained relations between both China and Russia and the West
  • How pragmatism and mutual economic benefits are driving cooperation
  • Competition in Eurasia as a potential source of conflict

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

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