Sibylline Insight Series
Sibylline Podcast - Venezuela - Resolution to Crisis Unlikely in Coming Months

Sibylline Podcast - Venezuela - Resolution to Crisis Unlikely in Coming Months

April 10, 2019

10 April marked three months since opposition leader Juan Guaidó declared himself as Venezuela’s interim president following the start of President Nicolas Maduro’s highly contested second term in office on 10 January. Despite Guaidó enjoying strong domestic support and backing from the EU, US and the majority of Latin America governments, Maduro has been able to remain in power.

Key points include:

  • The government’s recent crackdown on the opposition
  • Possible scenarios in Venezuela over the coming months
  • Factors that would herald an escalation of the current situation
  • Key triggers and tripwires that will shape the next phase of the Venezuelan crisis

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast - Algeria - Bouteflika’s Resignation Drives Establishment Infighting

Sibylline Podcast - Algeria - Bouteflika’s Resignation Drives Establishment Infighting

April 4, 2019

On 2 April, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika resigned from office, leaving Algeria’s political future uncertain. This was the culmination of nearly two months of protests, which look unlikely to subside as the establishment seeks to retain power. The concessions to demonstrators have encouraged demands for substantive constitutional reforms, which the military and political elite may be unwilling to grant. Infighting within the establishment will directly impact business operations.

Key points include:

  • The developments that caused Bouteflika’s resignation
  • The political ramifications of his departure
  • Likely impact on business

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

 

Sibylline Podcast - Israel - Policy Continuity Likely Despite Fraught Election Campaign

Sibylline Podcast - Israel - Policy Continuity Likely Despite Fraught Election Campaign

March 27, 2019

On 9 April, Israel will hold general elections, pitting incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against main rival Benny Gantz. Polling indicates this will be a closely fought contest, with a number of potential outcomes. This is an election where policy has been overshadowed by personalities, not least due to Netanyahu’s impending indictment on charges of corruption.

Key points include:

  • The main candidates to be the next Prime Minister, their policies and chances of success
  • Potential electoral outcomes in the Knesset, where neither candidate has an easy route to a majority
  • Likely impact on the business environment in the event of a victory for Gantz or Natanyahu

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

 

Sibylline Podcast - United Kingdom - Limited Brexit Delay Indicates Rising ‘No Deal’ Risk

Sibylline Podcast - United Kingdom - Limited Brexit Delay Indicates Rising ‘No Deal’ Risk

March 22, 2019

On 21 March, the European Council granted Prime Minister Theresa May a delay to the UK's departure date from the EU until 12 April, with a potential extension until 22 May. This is significantly shorter than the 30 June delay which May asked for, highlighting the growing pressure on the prime minister and an increasing likelihood of a 'no deal' Brexit.

 

Key points include:

  • The plausibility of the Withdrawal Treaty passing in an upcoming vote in the UK parliament
  • The prospects of a parliamentary breakdown and/or a general election
  • The likelihood, indicators, and immediate impacts of a 'no deal' scenario

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

 

Sibylline Podcast – Ukraine – Presidential elections likely to drive policy uncertainty

Sibylline Podcast – Ukraine – Presidential elections likely to drive policy uncertainty

March 14, 2019

On 31 March, Ukraine will hold presidential elections, with the race currently too close to call. Incumbent Petro Poroshenko, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy are leading the polls with a second round likely. This podcast will assess the key issues of the campaign and determine the impact of the uncertainty surrounding the election's outcome.

 

Key points include:

 

  • Direction of the Donbas conflict over 2019
  • Scope for reform beyond the elections
  • Russia's response to the uncertain election outcome

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast – India-Pakistan – Recent tensions fit pattern of controlled escalation

Sibylline Podcast – India-Pakistan – Recent tensions fit pattern of controlled escalation

March 5, 2019

The 14 February suicide bomb attack on Indian paramilitary troops prompted an extended fallout between Islamabad and New Delhi with a series of retaliatory actions raising fears of a broader conflict. This podcast will examine the current status of India-Pakistan relations and likelihood of escalation to broader confrontational scenarios.

 

Key points include:

 

  • Context of the war in Kashmir
  • Current status of India-Pakistan relations
  • Key triggers of a wider conflict

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast - EU - European Parliament Election Will Strain EU Decision-Making, Moderately Increasing Policy Risks

Sibylline Podcast - EU - European Parliament Election Will Strain EU Decision-Making, Moderately Increasing Policy Risks

February 22, 2019

Ahead of European Parliament elections in May 2019 where mainstream centrist factions are set to lose their absolute majority for the first time in EU history, we assess policy risks and operational implications of the election.

 

Key points include:

  • Implications for the policies and configuration of the new European Commission
  • Consequences for policy risk in the European Union
  • Operational impacts on the level of individual states

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast – Iran/EU – Introduction of INSTEX Unlikely to Restore EU-Iran Business Environment

Sibylline Podcast – Iran/EU – Introduction of INSTEX Unlikely to Restore EU-Iran Business Environment

February 6, 2019

On 31 January, France, Germany and the UK launched a special purpose vehicle to facilitate trade between the EU and Iran. The vehicle, termed the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX) will initially be applicable for transactions involving humanitarian aid, food and pharmaceuticals, with the potential to extend to cover other industries in the coming months. Here we discuss the drivers behind INSTEX and its implications on the regional and business environment both in Europe and the Middle East.

 

Key points include:

  • How and why INSTEX was introduced and current EU policy towards Iran
  • Implications for Iran’s socio-economic health and domestic stability
  • The likely trajectory of EU-Iranian relations amid renewed US-imposed sanctions
  • The future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) amid rising regional tensions

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast – Syria – Multifaceted nature of US military withdrawal elevates prospects of escalation

Sibylline Podcast – Syria – Multifaceted nature of US military withdrawal elevates prospects of escalation

January 25, 2019

Since the announcement of the US’ intended military withdrawal in Syria, regional stakeholders have intensified their political wrangling over influence and power in the region. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan met in Moscow on 23 January, where questions over the future of a planned security zone in Idlib dominated the discussion.

Key points include:

  • The changing nature of the Syrian conflict and how this may develop throughout the coming year
  • Regional and international ramifications of persistent divisions over the conflict
  • The likely trajectory for Syrian reconstruction throughout the coming year amid the prospects of escalation
  • Long-term implications for businesses seeking to re-engage with Syria

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

 
Sibylline Podcast – Canada/US/China- Multitude of Ongoing Diplomatic, Economic and Security Issues Raise Risks for North American Nationals Over Coming Weeks

Sibylline Podcast – Canada/US/China- Multitude of Ongoing Diplomatic, Economic and Security Issues Raise Risks for North American Nationals Over Coming Weeks

January 18, 2019

The 17 January warnings made by Chinese Ambassador to Canada Lu Shaye exacerbated the deterioration in relations between the two countries. The incident adds to the recent attention given to relations between the US, Canada, and China.

In this podcast we break down the areas of concern between the countries into three different categories: the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou and resulting fallout, ongoing Sino-American trade negotiations, and US-driven national security concerns regarding Chinese companies. After analysing these three categories, we give our predictions on how they will evolve, and highlight associated risks to Canadian and American companies and individuals.

Key points include:

  • Analysis of the relationship between the scrutiny of Huawei, ongoing trade negotiations, and concerns over espionage and intellectual property theft
  • Implications for US and Canadian travelers and operations in the China
  • Predictions regarding US government policy and oversight regarding Chinese firms in the coming months

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk