Sibylline Insight Series
Discussing the Coup in Guinea

Discussing the Coup in Guinea

September 17, 2021

Join your host Alexander Parsons, our Senior Analyst along with Benedict Manzin our Sub Sahara Africa Analyst and Edie Lipton our Africa Associate Analyst to discuss the coup in Guinea.

The recent overthrow of President Alpha Conde renders Guinea the third country in the region to undergo a coup in the past year. While local partners wish to discourage the repeated use of this tactic, their capacity to effectively penalise coup leaders is constrained as responses are limited by the need to maintain regional stability, in the context of jihadist conflict in the Sahel.

Additionally, while coup leaders claim to represent the demands of a dissatisfied population, they clearly have specific political goals and efforts to maintain their own influence and access to resources may drive tensions with civilian groups seeking greater reform.

Legislative Elections in Russia

Legislative Elections in Russia

September 10, 2021

This week join your host Edward Johnson, Head of Global Analysis along with Liana Semchuk, our Lead Europe & Eurasia Analyst and Alex Lord, our Europe & Eurasia Analyst to discuss the up and coming Russian elections.

Legislative elections will be held in Russia between 17 – 19 September, with the ruling United Russia highly likely to retain its political dominance. Despite the party's low approval ratings amid prolonged dissatisfaction with socio-economic conditions, the government's use of incentives, targeted repression, and online voting will work in its favour.

Meanwhile, the absence of a clear and unifying opposition figure will ensure that the risk of mass protests is limited, though sporadic mass action cannot be ruled out entirely, should widespread electoral irregularities be reported. As such, policy continuity, greater protectionism of domestic IT businesses, and increasing intolerance of dissent are likely to become more pronounced after the election.

The State of Global Terrorism on the 20th Anniversary of 9/11

The State of Global Terrorism on the 20th Anniversary of 9/11

September 3, 2021

Join Sibylline CEO, Justin Crump, as he reflects on the state of global terrorism 20 years after 9/11 with three of our experts: Eloise Scott, Lead Analyst for the Middle East and Africa, James Barth, North America Analyst, and Aedan Mordecai, Asia-Pacific Analyst.

In this episode, the team discuss how the terror threat has evolved since 2001, with the significance of recent events in Afghanistan, the emerging risks of today, and from right-wing extremism to single-issue threat actors.

Discussing the Crisis in Haiti after the Earthquake and Tropical Storm.

Discussing the Crisis in Haiti after the Earthquake and Tropical Storm.

August 27, 2021

Our Lead Analyst for Global Risk, John Breen, joins Ignacio Ayala, Latin America Analyst and Isabelle Mallon, Associate Analyst for the Americas to discuss the impact of the crisis in Haiti on humanitarian workers, NGOs, and businesses on the ground. The team will analyse how a 7.2 magnitude earthquake and Tropical Storm Grace will deepen the country’s political and socio-economic woes, paving the way for the expansion of criminal organisations across the country.

Discussing the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan

Discussing the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan

August 20, 2021

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and the unfolding crisis have dominated the global headlines in recent days. While the eventual fall of the civilian government in Kabul had been foreseen, the speed of the Taliban's advance and the capitulation of the Afghan National Army shocked the international community. As many foreign governments struggle in the chaotic evacuation operations, the Taliban continues to assert its authority, and seeks to bolster its political legitimacy and international recognition by pledging for an "inclusive Islamic government". However, many remain sceptical about the sincerity of the group's promises, dismissing them as a mere "PR campaign". Others are pondering what the return of Taliban rule in Afghanistan means for the country and the wider region.

In this week's podcast, join your host Dr Guo Yu, Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst along with Supriya Ravishankar, our South Asia Analyst, and Aedan Mordecai, our Asia-Pacific Analyst to discuss the latest situation in Afghanistan and the possible political and security implications under a Taliban government.

Discussing the IPCC’s 2021 Climate Change Report

Discussing the IPCC’s 2021 Climate Change Report

August 13, 2021

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2021 report has garnered significant attention since this week's publication, heralding a grim warning of a 'code red for humanity'. What do the findings of the report mean in practice for firms operating across Europe and Eurasia, and which regions will be most at risk?

Join Liana Semchuk, our Europe-Eurasia Lead Analyst, Louis Cox-Brusseau, Europe Analyst, and Alex Lord, Europe-Eurasia Analyst, for the key takeaways from the IPCC's 2021 report.

Hungary and Poland: In the wake of the Pegasus scandal, tensions with the EU rise over rule-of-law and media freedoms

Hungary and Poland: In the wake of the Pegasus scandal, tensions with the EU rise over rule-of-law and media freedoms

August 6, 2021

Join your host Liana Semchuk, Lead Europe & Eurasia Analyst, along with Louis Cox-Brusseau and Zsofia Wolford our Europe Analysts to discuss the ongoing tensions between Hungary, Poland and the European Commission.

Tensions increased recently as the Commission initiated legal proceedings against Hungary over a controversial anti-LGBTQI+ law. This comes as revelations from the Pegasus surveillance scandal suggested independent media and opposition figures in Hungary were overwhelmingly targeted by state surveillance.

Elsewhere in the Visegrad region, concerns remain over the independence of the judiciary in Poland and media freedoms in the Czech Republic, ensuring that tensions with Brussels are set to increase in the long term.

Mounting Political Crisis Threatens Tunisia’s Democracy

Mounting Political Crisis Threatens Tunisia’s Democracy

July 30, 2021

Join this week’s host, Alex Parsons, Lead Analyst of the Americas, along with Eloise Scott, Lead Analyst for the Middle East and Africa, and Rhiannon Phillips, Associate Analyst for the Middle East and North Africa to discuss Tunisia's deepening political deadlock, which has recently come to a head, with President Kais Saied dismissing Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi and suspending parliament.

The impact this governmental crisis has on the already stagnant policy will be significant, as Tunisia faces fresh waves of Covid-19 infections and mounting socio-economic strife. President Saied's actions could also threaten Tunisia's democracy, with the 2014 constitution at the heart of the crisis.

Socio-economic unrest threatens to disrupt South Africa’s recovery

Socio-economic unrest threatens to disrupt South Africa’s recovery

July 23, 2021
On 9 July violent protests broke out across Kwa-Zulu Natal, quickly spreading to Gauteng, resulting in widespread looting and arson, with clashes resulting in hundreds of deaths. Following the deployment of 25,000 soldiers, calm was eventually restored, but not before an estimated ZAR 50 billion in damages was caused, impacting around 40,000 businesses. While the initial flashpoint may have been the arrest of former president Jacob Zuma, economic unrest was the key factor impacting the intensity and characteristics of the unrest.
 
This week's podcast discusses the events and drivers around the unrest and the long term implications this may have on the country's economic health with your host Alexander Parsons, along with Sub Saharan Africa Analyst Benedict Manzin and Edie Lipton, Associate Sub Saharan Africa Analyst.
Impact on US-China Relationship in conjunction with Covid-19 Origin Investigations

Impact on US-China Relationship in conjunction with Covid-19 Origin Investigations

July 16, 2021

US President Joe Biden is expecting a 45-day update on a US investigation into the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic. The investigation, led by the US intelligence services, is drawing widespread media attention, with scientists, political scientists and health experts weighing in on the polarising hypothesis of whether the SARS-CoV-2 virus may have leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China.

While evidence to support the lab leak theory remains purely circumstantial, the US investigation comes amid strained relations between Beijing and Washington, particularly as the Biden Administration considers further actions in response to Beijing’s crackdown on the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong, and its treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang.

How may Washington's virus origin investigation shape the direction of travel for already fraught Sino-US relations? With Covid-19 still affecting much of the world, how will the ongoing feud between the two world's largest economies affect our response to this and future pandemics?

Join your host Justin Crump, CEO of Sibylline, along with Guo Yu, our Lead Analyst for Asia-Pacific and resident China expert, James Hannan, our Americas Analyst and avid Covid-watcher, and John Breen, Lead Analyst for Global Risks.

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