Sibylline Insight Series
Russian-Ukrainian tensions and the threat of escalation in the Donbas

Russian-Ukrainian tensions and the threat of escalation in the Donbas

April 9, 2021
This week Edward Johnson, Sibylline’s Insight Team Manager, leads a discussion with Liana Semchuk, Europe & Eurasia Lead Analyst, and Alex Lord scrutinising the massing of Russian military forces on the border with Ukraine and combat intensification in the Donbas. These activities have elevated concerns of the potential threat of invasion and a military clash between the two countries. The developments mark a notable deterioration in the region's security environment, but an outright Russian military invasion of Ukraine is currently deemed unlikely. Nevertheless, further provocations and an escalation in hostilities along the current line of contact in the Donbas is likely in the short term.
US-Russia Tensions

US-Russia Tensions

March 12, 2021

Liana Semchuk, Lead Analyst for Europe & Eurasia, and James Barth, Analyst for North America, join Director for Sibylline EMEA Jonathan Dunbar, to discuss tensions between the US and Russia increasing since Joe Biden became president of the United States. The risk of US sanctions against Russia expanding remains elevated in the months ahead as bipartisan pressure on Biden to take a tougher stance on Russia mounts. However, Washington may be forced to make compromises on its Russia stance concerning key infrastructural projects such as Nord Stream 2 as the Biden administration seeks to mend ties with Europe, particularly Germany. Further strains to the US / EU-Russia relationship will also come from Covid-19 vaccine disinformation allegations, cyber threats, and Washington's promotion of democracy in Eastern Europe.

Insurrection, Impeachment, and International Implications… and Insightful Discussion on U.S. Politics

Insurrection, Impeachment, and International Implications… and Insightful Discussion on U.S. Politics

January 15, 2021

Sibylline Americas Director Greg Hoobler is joined by James Barth, North America Analyst, Liana Semchuk, Lead Analyst for Europe, and Hugo Yu, Lead Analyst for Asia-Pacific, for a discussion based on events and implications associated with the right-wing insurrection at the US Capitol on January 6. This discussion will include important considerations from both the US domestic perspective and international eyes.

The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict as well as implications in the wake of the US presidential election

The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict as well as implications in the wake of the US presidential election

November 13, 2020

Join Sibylline’s Greg Hoobler as he hosts this week’s podcast with Liana Semchuk, Lead Europe & Eurasia Analyst; Alex Lord, Europe & Eurasia Analyst; Amy Reynolds, Deputy Insight Manager; and James Barth, North America Analyst. 

Our speakers revisit the Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict and explore whether the surprisingly quiet post-election period represents a calm before the storm or an over-estimation of election related unrest in the US…

 

NEW PODCAST: Political crisis and unrest in Russia’s backyard, Pyongyang’s ICBM on parade, and forthcoming issues to watch

NEW PODCAST: Political crisis and unrest in Russia’s backyard, Pyongyang’s ICBM on parade, and forthcoming issues to watch

October 16, 2020

Join Sibylline's CEO, Justin Crump, as he hosts this edition’s discussion with Dr Hugo Yu and Liana Semchuk. Our speakers identify the latest developments and trigger points surrounding North Korea's weapons development; the ongoing domestic and international conflicts in Belarus and Armenia-Azerbaijan; the implications of the Kyrgyz protests; and Edward Johnson, our Insight Manager, also joins to discuss some of the other key issues to watch in the coming weeks. Did someone mention a US election…?

Sibylline Podcast - Russia/China - The Vostok Military Exercises and the Evolving Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership

Sibylline Podcast - Russia/China - The Vostok Military Exercises and the Evolving Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership

September 14, 2018

With Russia’s Vostok military exercises taking place this week - on the grandest scale since the Cold War era and involving China for the first time – we discuss the domestic significance as well as the evolving relationship between Moscow and Beijing. With signs of greater cooperation, as well as numerous potential points of contention, we consider how best to interpret the relationship and how it is likely to progress.

Key points include:

  • Russia’s domestic economic problems
  • Increasingly strained relations between both China and Russia and the West
  • How pragmatism and mutual economic benefits are driving cooperation
  • Competition in Eurasia as a potential source of conflict

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast – Europe/ Eurasia – Controversy at NATO Summit and Trump-Putin Meeting Reduces NATO Deterrent

Sibylline Podcast – Europe/ Eurasia – Controversy at NATO Summit and Trump-Putin Meeting Reduces NATO Deterrent

July 12, 2018

Following the first day of the NATO Summit, we explore the major themes of the event and the strategic implications for the operational environment in Europe, as well as upcoming protests against President Trump’s visits in Europe.

 

Key points include:

  • Immediate concerns
  • Strategic themes of the NATO Summit
  • The Putin-Trump meeting in Helsinki
  • Implications for business operations in Europe

 

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast – Russia – Europe: Implications Of The Skripal Attack And Putin Election Victory

Sibylline Podcast – Russia – Europe: Implications Of The Skripal Attack And Putin Election Victory

March 22, 2018

Tensions between Putin’s Kremlin and the UK are peaking following the 4 March nerve agent attack on Sergey Skripal in Salisbury, England; whilst Putin’s election victory heralds an anticipated broad continuation of existing trends.

In this podcast, we look at how these two events have shaped the security and operating environment in Russia, and impacted our global outlook.

Key points include:

  • Analysis of the elections and the meaning of Putin’s victory.
  • The threat to UK and Western firms operating in Russia following the Skripal attack, in particular to longstanding challenges associated with operating in Russia.
  • The long term outlook

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk  

Sibylline Podcast – Russia – Putin 4.0 Continuity and Assertion

Sibylline Podcast – Russia – Putin 4.0 Continuity and Assertion

March 1, 2018

President Putin is expected to comfortably win the upcoming March elections, with tensions between Moscow and the West unlikely to dissipate over the course of a fourth Putin term.

Key points include:

  • Analysis of key issues facing Russia
  • Medium and long term security/economic implications  
  • Kremlin will continue to pursue an increasingly assertive foreign policy at a global level
Podbean App

Play this podcast on Podbean App