Sibylline Insight Series
Hong Kong - National Day will be a flashpoint for Hong Kong anti-government protests

Hong Kong - National Day will be a flashpoint for Hong Kong anti-government protests

September 30, 2019

Anti-government and anti-China protests have been ongoing in Hong Kong since early June and show no sign of abating. While the majority of the demonstrators have been protesting peacefully, there has been violence on the margins, with the use of water cannon and petrol bombs posing elevated incidental risks to people and property in the vicinity. China's National Day on 1 October threatens an escalation in the violence and disruption, as the hardline demonstrators seek to embarrass Beijing as it celebrates the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic.

Key points include:
• The tactical manifestation of the protest movement.
• Direct threats to businesses operating in the territory.
• Our predictions for National Day and longer-term forecast.

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast - Sudan - Tensions Between Civilians and Transitional Military Council Drive Threats to Stability

Sibylline Podcast - Sudan - Tensions Between Civilians and Transitional Military Council Drive Threats to Stability

May 3, 2019

Since the removal of President Omar al-Bashir on 11 April, protests have continued, with tensions remaining elevated between civilians demanding meaningful reform and a transitional military council attempting to retain executive control of the state.

Key points include:

  • The formation of a movement to demand a transition to civilian rule
  • The objectives of the Transitional Military Council
  • The trajectory of growing internal division and its impact on government stability and policy risk

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast - Sri Lanka - Easter Sunday Attack Triggers State of Emergency and Could Ignite Religious Tensions

Sibylline Podcast - Sri Lanka - Easter Sunday Attack Triggers State of Emergency and Could Ignite Religious Tensions

April 25, 2019
On 21 April, suicide bombers killed at least 359 people and injured more than 500 at churches and hotels across Sri Lanka. The government has said that a local Islamist group carried out the attacks with the assistance of foreign jihadists, while Islamic State (IS) has claimed responsibility.
 
Key points include:
 
  • Who may have been behind the attacks
  • Possible motivations for the bombings
  • Potential local and regional security implications following the attacks

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast - Venezuela - Resolution to Crisis Unlikely in Coming Months

Sibylline Podcast - Venezuela - Resolution to Crisis Unlikely in Coming Months

April 10, 2019

10 April marked three months since opposition leader Juan Guaidó declared himself as Venezuela’s interim president following the start of President Nicolas Maduro’s highly contested second term in office on 10 January. Despite Guaidó enjoying strong domestic support and backing from the EU, US and the majority of Latin America governments, Maduro has been able to remain in power.

Key points include:

  • The government’s recent crackdown on the opposition
  • Possible scenarios in Venezuela over the coming months
  • Factors that would herald an escalation of the current situation
  • Key triggers and tripwires that will shape the next phase of the Venezuelan crisis

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast - EU - European Parliament Election Will Strain EU Decision-Making, Moderately Increasing Policy Risks

Sibylline Podcast - EU - European Parliament Election Will Strain EU Decision-Making, Moderately Increasing Policy Risks

February 22, 2019

Ahead of European Parliament elections in May 2019 where mainstream centrist factions are set to lose their absolute majority for the first time in EU history, we assess policy risks and operational implications of the election.

 

Key points include:

  • Implications for the policies and configuration of the new European Commission
  • Consequences for policy risk in the European Union
  • Operational impacts on the level of individual states

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast – Syria – Multifaceted nature of US military withdrawal elevates prospects of escalation

Sibylline Podcast – Syria – Multifaceted nature of US military withdrawal elevates prospects of escalation

January 25, 2019

Since the announcement of the US’ intended military withdrawal in Syria, regional stakeholders have intensified their political wrangling over influence and power in the region. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan met in Moscow on 23 January, where questions over the future of a planned security zone in Idlib dominated the discussion.

Key points include:

  • The changing nature of the Syrian conflict and how this may develop throughout the coming year
  • Regional and international ramifications of persistent divisions over the conflict
  • The likely trajectory for Syrian reconstruction throughout the coming year amid the prospects of escalation
  • Long-term implications for businesses seeking to re-engage with Syria

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

 
Sibylline Podcast – Syria – Improved regional trade likely as Idlib ceasefire holds following Istanbul summit

Sibylline Podcast – Syria – Improved regional trade likely as Idlib ceasefire holds following Istanbul summit

November 2, 2018

Following on from the 27 October summit in Istanbul that featured Turkish, Russian, French and German leadership this podcast asks what is next for the Syrian conflict.We assess the meeting itself and viability of the Idlib ceasefire, looking at the roles of Turkey, Iran and Russia in the future of the conflict and what this means for potential short and long term economic and security developments both in Syria and the wider region.

Key Points Include:

  • What the Idlib ceasefire means for the principle participants
  • The role of Russia, Iran and Turkey in the future of the Syrian conflict
  • Scope for an enduring diplomatic solution and possible reconstruction
  • The economic opportunities and impact on regional supply chains of the current ceasefire
Sibylline Podcast – Saudi Arabia – Controversy Surrounding Ongoing Khashoggi Case Anticipated to Elevate Short-term Reputational Risks

Sibylline Podcast – Saudi Arabia – Controversy Surrounding Ongoing Khashoggi Case Anticipated to Elevate Short-term Reputational Risks

October 24, 2018

Since 2 October, Saudi Arabia has experienced significant international criticism over the death of popular journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul, Turkey. On 23 October, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan reaffirmed Ankara’s willingness to cooperate with the investigation, whilst pressuring Riyadh for more transparency regarding several key features about the case.

In this podcast we discuss the short and medium term ramifications from a regional and international perspective.

Key points include:

  • An overview of the situation and analysis of Erdogan’s speech
  • Political implications for Saudi-Turkish-US relations
  • Implications for commercial interests in Saudi Arabia and Turkey

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast – Brazil – Elections likely to go to second round with a credible chance of a Haddad Presidency

Sibylline Podcast – Brazil – Elections likely to go to second round with a credible chance of a Haddad Presidency

October 3, 2018

Brazil goes to the polling booths on 7 October in a General Election. Right wing presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro and Workers’ Party nomination Fernando Haddad have a strong lead in sentiment polls, and a second round vote is broadly anticipated on 28 October. In this podcast we look at the potential ultimate outcomes and what they would mean for the future of Brazil’s security and operating environment.

Key points include:

  • Immediate term issues around polling day
  • Likely outcomes of round one
  • Possible outcomes of round two
  • What a Haddad presidency might look like
  • What a Bolsonaro presidency might look like

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast – Ukraine - The Zakharchenko Assassination: What it means for the Donbas conflict and Urkaine

Sibylline Podcast – Ukraine - The Zakharchenko Assassination: What it means for the Donbas conflict and Urkaine

September 5, 2018

The 31 August killing of separatist leader Aleksander Zakharchenko in Donetsk threatens to elicit short term instability in eastern Ukraine and Kyiv. Moscow will likely assert greater direct control over the Donetsk People’s Republic following the assassination with a refocusing of its Donbas strategy towards the reintegration of the separatist-held regions into Ukraine as it simultaneously seeks to influence upcoming Ukrainian presidential elections.

In this podcast we analyse possible motives behind Zakharchenko’s killing and assess the wider impact on Ukraine ahead of 2019’s election cycle.

 

Key points include:

  • Why Zakharchenko’s killing matters in relation to resolution of the conflict
  • The impact on Ukraine, with instability and polarisation likely to be exacerbated by Moscow as it seeks to impact Ukrainian presidential elections
  • Possible motives and preparators of the assassination

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk