Sibylline Insight Podcast

Russia’s constitutional reforms to secure Putin’s influence beyond

On 15 January, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev's government resigned after President Vladimir Putin proposed constitutional reforms that would give more power to various government bodies – whilst ensuring that Russia remains a presidential republic. A career technocrat and former head of Federal Tax Service (FTS) Mikhail Mishustin was appointed as new prime minister same day, in what constitutes a power reshuffle designed to ensure long-term stability of Putin's regime and prepare the ground for the transition of power in 2024 and beyond.

Venezuela's prolonged political crisis will worsen bilateral relations with Colombia

On 5 January, Venezuela tumbled in a new political crisis when the leadership of the Venezuela’s National Assembly was challenged by two rival speakers: opposition leader Juan Guaidó, backed by the international community, and dissident opposition lawmaker Luis Parra, supported by President Nicolás Maduro and Russia. As the political standoff continues in the coming months, the deepening of the economic and humanitarian crisis will exacerbate tensions with neighbouring Colombia.

Key points include:

• The latest political developments in Venezuela and their domestic implications
• The impact of Venezuela’s political crisis on Colombia
• Our predictions for Venezuela and its bilateral relation with Colombia

Hong Kong - National Day will be a flashpoint for Hong Kong anti-government protests

Anti-government and anti-China protests have been ongoing in Hong Kong since early June and show no sign of abating. While the majority of the demonstrators have been protesting peacefully, there has been violence on the margins, with the use of water cannon and petrol bombs posing elevated incidental risks to people and property in the vicinity. China's National Day on 1 October threatens an escalation in the violence and disruption, as the hardline demonstrators seek to embarrass Beijing as it celebrates the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic.

Key points include:
• The tactical manifestation of the protest movement.
• Direct threats to businesses operating in the territory.
• Our predictions for National Day and longer-term forecast.

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast - Sudan - Tensions Between Civilians and Transitional Military Council Drive Threats to Stability

Since the removal of President Omar al-Bashir on 11 April, protests have continued, with tensions remaining elevated between civilians demanding meaningful reform and a transitional military council attempting to retain executive control of the state.

Key points include:

• The formation of a movement to demand a transition to civilian rule
• The objectives of the Transitional Military Council
• The trajectory of growing internal division and its impact on government stability and policy risk

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast - Sri Lanka - Easter Sunday Attack Triggers State of Emergency and Could Ignite Religious Tensions

On 21 April, suicide bombers killed at least 359 people and injured more than 500 at churches and hotels across Sri Lanka. The government has said that a local Islamist group carried out the attacks with the assistance of foreign jihadists, while Islamic State (IS) has claimed responsibility.

 

Key points include:

 

• Who may have been behind the attacks
• Possible motivations for the bombings
• Potential local and regional security implications following the attacks

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast - Venezuela - Resolution to Crisis Unlikely in Coming Months

10 April marked three months since opposition leader Juan Guaidó declared himself as Venezuela’s interim president following the start of President Nicolas Maduro’s highly contested second term in office on 10 January. Despite Guaidó enjoying strong domestic support and backing from the EU, US and the majority of Latin America governments, Maduro has been able to remain in power.

Key points include:

• The government’s recent crackdown on the opposition
• Possible scenarios in Venezuela over the coming months
• Factors that would herald an escalation of the current situation
• Key triggers and tripwires that will shape the next phase of the Venezuelan crisis

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast - EU - European Parliament Election Will Strain EU Decision-Making, Moderately Increasing Policy Risks

Ahead of European Parliament elections in May 2019 where mainstream centrist factions are set to lose their absolute majority for the first time in EU history, we assess policy risks and operational implications of the election.

 

Key points include:

• Implications for the policies and configuration of the new European Commission
• Consequences for policy risk in the European Union
• Operational impacts on the level of individual states
  
  

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast – Syria – Improved regional trade likely as Idlib ceasefire holds following Istanbul summit

Following on from the 27 October summit in Istanbul that featured Turkish, Russian, French and German leadership this podcast asks what is next for the Syrian conflict.We assess the meeting itself and viability of the Idlib ceasefire, looking at the roles of Turkey, Iran and Russia in the future of the conflict and what this means for potential short and long term economic and security developments both in Syria and the wider region.

Key Points Include:

• What the Idlib ceasefire means for the principle participants
• The role of Russia, Iran and Turkey in the future of the Syrian conflict
• Scope for an enduring diplomatic solution and possible reconstruction
• The economic opportunities and impact on regional supply chains of the current ceasefire

Sibylline Podcast – Brazil – Elections likely to go to second round with a credible chance of a Haddad Presidency

Brazil goes to the polling booths on 7 October in a General Election. Right wing presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro and Workers’ Party nomination Fernando Haddad have a strong lead in sentiment polls, and a second round vote is broadly anticipated on 28 October. In this podcast we look at the potential ultimate outcomes and what they would mean for the future of Brazil’s security and operating environment.

Key points include:

• Immediate term issues around polling day
• Likely outcomes of round one
• Possible outcomes of round two
• What a Haddad presidency might look like
• What a Bolsonaro presidency might look like

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast – Ukraine - The Zakharchenko Assassination: What it means for the Donbas conflict and Urkaine

The 31 August killing of separatist leader Aleksander Zakharchenko in Donetsk threatens to elicit short term instability in eastern Ukraine and Kyiv. Moscow will likely assert greater direct control over the Donetsk People’s Republic following the assassination with a refocusing of its Donbas strategy towards the reintegration of the separatist-held regions into Ukraine as it simultaneously seeks to influence upcoming Ukrainian presidential elections.

In this podcast we analyse possible motives behind Zakharchenko’s killing and assess the wider impact on Ukraine ahead of 2019’s election cycle.

 

Key points include:

• Why Zakharchenko’s killing matters in relation to resolution of the conflict
• The impact on Ukraine, with instability and polarisation likely to be exacerbated by Moscow as it seeks to impact Ukrainian presidential elections
• Possible motives and preparators of the assassination

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk