Sibylline Insight Podcast

Regional Elections in France

The first round of regional elections in France has yielded startling results, with both the far-right under Marine Le Pen and the ruling party of President Emmanuel Macron seeing significant setbacks nationwide as traditional left- and right-wing parties surge forward. In our latest podcast, Liana Semchuk, Lead Europe-Eurasia Analyst, is joined by Louis Cox-Brusseau, Europe Analyst, and Alex Lord, Europe-Eurasia Analyst. Together they assess the preliminary results of the French regional elections, ahead of an electoral runoff next week which is likely to prefigure a close race in the French presidential elections in 2022.

Presidential Elections in Iran

In our latest podcast, Alex Parsons, Lead Analyst for the Americas is joined by Eloise Scott, Lead Analyst for the Middle East and Africa and James Hannan, Associate Analyst for Americas, to discuss the presidential elections in Iran.

Iranian elections held on 18 June are almost certain to return a hard-line president, allowing hardliners and conservatives to consolidate their power over the country and its institutions. This podcast explores how the polls might affect Iran's internal affairs and ongoing nuclear talks with the other JCPOA signatories and wider regional dynamics.

The G7 Summit: Politics, Policy and Possible Implications

In our latest podcast, Philip Riding, Middle East and Africa Lead Analyst is joined by James Barth, North America Analyst and Dr Guo Yu, Lead Analyst for Asia Pacific, to discuss the G7 Summit in Cornwall.

Leaders of the world's wealthiest economies and major democratic powers (including the EU) have gathered at Cornish seaside town of St. Ives for the 47th summit, which kicks off today. The three-day meeting – US President Joe Biden’s first official foreign trip since his inauguration in January – represents one of the most high-profile events in diplomacy to be held in person since the start of the pandemic. The summit, therefore, serves as an opportunity for the leading advanced economies to discuss important plans and strategy that will undoubtedly have a lasting impact on the post-pandemic world order.

Federal Elections in Mexico

The federal elections on 6 June will be the second-largest electoral event in Mexico’s history. Over 20,000 positions will be elected, including the entire lower chamber of the 500-seat Congress, 15 state governors, 30 State congresses, and the authorities of around 1,900 municipalities. Together with Ignacio Ayala, Lat-Am Intelligence Analyst, Alex Parsons, Lead Analyst, the Americas, and Dr Guo Yu, Lead Analyst, Asia Pacific, discuss the significance of the vote, the recent surge of political violence as well as what the likely outlook of Mexico’s political landscape means for business. 

Energy Exporters in the Middle East and Africa – Post-Covid Policy Risk and Opportunities

The dual crises of the Covid-19 pandemic and collapse of oil prices have driven significant policy changes amongst many major energy exporters across the Middle East and Africa as governments are forced to address deficiencies in existing industrial models and spending habits. In this podcast Phillip Riding, MEA Lead Analyst, is joined by Benedict Manzin, Sub Saharan Africa Analyst, and Eloise Scott, Middle East Analyst, as they explore common trends, areas of divergence and public responses, with its capacity to stall reform and disrupt the operating environment.

Israel and Gaza – Ceasefire offers only short-term respite

The latest conflict in Gaza has drawn much international attention, as has the prospect of a ceasefire, which materialised this morning. In our latest podcast, Alexander Parsons, Lead Americas Analyst, is joined by Philip Riding, MEA Lead Analyst, and Guo (Hugo) Yu, Lead ASPAC Analyst. Together they unpack the last week’s events, why the end of fighting will yield little progress beyond the short term and the political impact of the conflict in Israel.  

Cyber threats to critical infrastructure and potential next steps

The ransomware attack on US energy firm Colonial Pipeline last week caused significant disruptions to fuel delivery on the East Coast, as the firm suspended most of its operations in a bid to stem the spread of malware. With Colonial pipeline transporting nearly half of US East Coast's fuel supply, this incident highlights the growing threat that cyber attacks pose to critical infrastructure. Our latest analysis examines how this activity compares with the perpetrators' (the DarkSide operators) previous activity and what Colonial Pipeline and Washington's response towards this incident could mean for America's energy security.

 

This analysis was made prior to the 12 May announcement that Colonial Pipeline was restarting some of its services. Nevertheless, the analysis in the podcast will still remain relevant until the pipeline is fully functional later this week.

British Naval Deployment to Indo-Pacific Amid Heightened Regional Tensions

In this week's podcast Jonathan Dunbar, EMEA Director, is joined by Guo Yu, PhD, Lead APAC Analyst, and John Harley Breen, Lead Global Risks Analyst, to discuss the British-led naval deployment to Asia amid heightened regional tensions. The UK’s new aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth recently deployed as part of a larger naval strike group to the Indo-Pacific in her inaugural operational deployment. The carrier, armed with 5th generation multirole F-35B jets of the Royal Air Force (RAF) and United States Marine Corps (USMC), along with other rotary wing aircraft and a detachment of Royal Marines, will visit 40 countries, including India, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea, as part of this 28-week mission. The strike group will also conduct joint exercises with the US and many allies along its voyage. The power-projecting deployment comes amid rising geopolitical tensions in the region, underpinned by the strategic rivalry between China and the US.

Political deadlock and sectarian strife are catalysts for Lebanon's collapse

In this week’s podcast Alexander Parsons, Lead Americas Analyst, is joined by Eloise Scott, Middle East and North Africa Analyst, and Philip Riding, MEA Lead Analyst, to discuss the ongoing financial and socio-economic crises in Lebanon. Warnings from officials of severe difficulties in funding imports and subsidies looks to exacerbate the situation, potentially triggering domestic unrest. The most significant obstacle to the country's recovery appears to be political deadlock and deepening sectarian strife, as blocs appear to be preparing for the worst.

The cyber security landscape in the wake of the SolarWinds operation

The Covid-19 pandemic has forced many businesses across the globe to rely more on cloud computing and third-party technology to support remote working arrangements. In this week's podcast, Amy Reynolds, Deputy Insight Manager, is joined by Hans Horan, Cyber Analyst, and Guo Yu, lead ASPAC Analyst, to unpack how this increased inter-connectivity has also provided cyber threat actors with a myriad of new avenues through which to target businesses. The most notable of these vectors has been the targeting of software supply chains, which is best exemplified by the Russia-led SolarWinds attack that resulted in the compromise of nine US government agencies and around 100 private companies. With the pandemic still raging on around the world, many firms will continue their heavy reliance on third-party technology as a means to ensure operational continuity. Corporate risk exposure to cyber security threats enabled by software supply chains is only expected to grow.