Sibylline Insight Podcast

Energy Exporters in the Middle East and Africa – Post-Covid Policy Risk and Opportunities

The dual crises of the Covid-19 pandemic and collapse of oil prices have driven significant policy changes amongst many major energy exporters across the Middle East and Africa as governments are forced to address deficiencies in existing industrial models and spending habits. In this podcast Phillip Riding, MEA Lead Analyst, is joined by Benedict Manzin, Sub Saharan Africa Analyst, and Eloise Scott, Middle East Analyst, as they explore common trends, areas of divergence and public responses, with its capacity to stall reform and disrupt the operating environment.

Israel and Gaza – Ceasefire offers only short-term respite

The latest conflict in Gaza has drawn much international attention, as has the prospect of a ceasefire, which materialised this morning. In our latest podcast, Alexander Parsons, Lead Americas Analyst, is joined by Philip Riding, MEA Lead Analyst, and Guo (Hugo) Yu, Lead ASPAC Analyst. Together they unpack the last week’s events, why the end of fighting will yield little progress beyond the short term and the political impact of the conflict in Israel.  

Cyber threats to critical infrastructure and potential next steps

The ransomware attack on US energy firm Colonial Pipeline last week caused significant disruptions to fuel delivery on the East Coast, as the firm suspended most of its operations in a bid to stem the spread of malware. With Colonial pipeline transporting nearly half of US East Coast's fuel supply, this incident highlights the growing threat that cyber attacks pose to critical infrastructure. Our latest analysis examines how this activity compares with the perpetrators' (the DarkSide operators) previous activity and what Colonial Pipeline and Washington's response towards this incident could mean for America's energy security.

 

This analysis was made prior to the 12 May announcement that Colonial Pipeline was restarting some of its services. Nevertheless, the analysis in the podcast will still remain relevant until the pipeline is fully functional later this week.

British Naval Deployment to Indo-Pacific Amid Heightened Regional Tensions

In this week's podcast Jonathan Dunbar, EMEA Director, is joined by Guo Yu, PhD, Lead APAC Analyst, and John Harley Breen, Lead Global Risks Analyst, to discuss the British-led naval deployment to Asia amid heightened regional tensions. The UK’s new aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth recently deployed as part of a larger naval strike group to the Indo-Pacific in her inaugural operational deployment. The carrier, armed with 5th generation multirole F-35B jets of the Royal Air Force (RAF) and United States Marine Corps (USMC), along with other rotary wing aircraft and a detachment of Royal Marines, will visit 40 countries, including India, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea, as part of this 28-week mission. The strike group will also conduct joint exercises with the US and many allies along its voyage. The power-projecting deployment comes amid rising geopolitical tensions in the region, underpinned by the strategic rivalry between China and the US.

Political deadlock and sectarian strife are catalysts for Lebanon's collapse

In this week’s podcast Alexander Parsons, Lead Americas Analyst, is joined by Eloise Scott, Middle East and North Africa Analyst, and Philip Riding, MEA Lead Analyst, to discuss the ongoing financial and socio-economic crises in Lebanon. Warnings from officials of severe difficulties in funding imports and subsidies looks to exacerbate the situation, potentially triggering domestic unrest. The most significant obstacle to the country's recovery appears to be political deadlock and deepening sectarian strife, as blocs appear to be preparing for the worst.

The cyber security landscape in the wake of the SolarWinds operation

The Covid-19 pandemic has forced many businesses across the globe to rely more on cloud computing and third-party technology to support remote working arrangements. In this week's podcast, Amy Reynolds, Deputy Insight Manager, is joined by Hans Horan, Cyber Analyst, and Guo Yu, lead ASPAC Analyst, to unpack how this increased inter-connectivity has also provided cyber threat actors with a myriad of new avenues through which to target businesses. The most notable of these vectors has been the targeting of software supply chains, which is best exemplified by the Russia-led SolarWinds attack that resulted in the compromise of nine US government agencies and around 100 private companies. With the pandemic still raging on around the world, many firms will continue their heavy reliance on third-party technology as a means to ensure operational continuity. Corporate risk exposure to cyber security threats enabled by software supply chains is only expected to grow.

New Report - Sibylline Extremism Quarterly, and how extremist groups are expanding their area of influence in the Sahel

In this week's episode, EMEA Director Jonathan Dunbar discusses the launch of Sibylline's latest report, the Global Extremism Quarterly, with Sub-Saharan Africa Analyst Ben Manzin and James Barth, our North America Analyst. They discuss the contents of the report and the impetus for creating it, detailing the unprecedented pace of change in the threat landscape of extremism. They also dive into one of the themes discussed in this quarter's report and assess the latest developments in the Sahel, where extremist groups continue to increase their footprint throughout the wider region. Continued development of their position in Burkina Faso and Mali threatens to create a platform from which they can increase incursions into West African states. However, their focus has thus far remained on securing rural areas rather than targeting cities where businesses are primarily located. 

Russian-Ukrainian tensions and the threat of escalation in the Donbas

This week Edward Johnson, Sibylline’s Insight Team Manager, leads a discussion with Liana Semchuk, Europe & Eurasia Lead Analyst, and Alex Lord scrutinising the massing of Russian military forces on the border with Ukraine and combat intensification in the Donbas. These activities have elevated concerns of the potential threat of invasion and a military clash between the two countries. The developments mark a notable deterioration in the region's security environment, but an outright Russian military invasion of Ukraine is currently deemed unlikely. Nevertheless, further provocations and an escalation in hostilities along the current line of contact in the Donbas is likely in the short term.

Attack in Mozambique raises new questions over threats to gas industry

In this week’s podcast Philip Riding, MEA Lead Analyst, and Benedict Manzin, Africa Analyst, discuss the recent attack on Palma, Mozambique, which brought a temporary halt to the development of the country’s natural gas industry. While this project, which is Africa's largest single investment, has been periodically disrupted by growing insecurity over the last two years, the attack last week threatened the lives of dozens of expat contractors. There is now growing consensus among the international community about the need to assist the Mozambican government, but this is not a guarantee that security will improve for the energy sector in the months ahead.

  

Developments and Progress in Israel and Libya

Eloise Scott, Analyst for Middle East & North Africa, and Philip Riding, Lead Analyst for Middle East and Africa, join Director for Sibylline EMEA Jonathan Dunbar, to discuss the recent developments and progress in Israel and Libya

Israel goes to the polls next week for the fourth time in two years. The result is too close to call and will likely result in another round of messy coalition negotiations, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to retain the premiership and stave off his corruption trial. However, if a new administration manages to pass a budget, business could benefit from greater certainty and a more substantive post-Covid recovery package.

Elsewhere in the Mediterranean, Libya has seen recent progress towards having its first functional government in a decade. Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah's cabinet was sworn in this week and is now responsible for laying the groundwork for elections in December. Challenges remain however, especially around the presence of foreign forces in the country and threats to oil and gas infrastructure.