Sibylline Insight Podcast

New Report - Sibylline Extremism Quarterly, and how extremist groups are expanding their area of influence in the Sahel

In this week's episode, EMEA Director Jonathan Dunbar discusses the launch of Sibylline's latest report, the Global Extremism Quarterly, with Sub-Saharan Africa Analyst Ben Manzin and James Barth, our North America Analyst. They discuss the contents of the report and the impetus for creating it, detailing the unprecedented pace of change in the threat landscape of extremism. They also dive into one of the themes discussed in this quarter's report and assess the latest developments in the Sahel, where extremist groups continue to increase their footprint throughout the wider region. Continued development of their position in Burkina Faso and Mali threatens to create a platform from which they can increase incursions into West African states. However, their focus has thus far remained on securing rural areas rather than targeting cities where businesses are primarily located. 

Russian-Ukrainian tensions and the threat of escalation in the Donbas

This week Edward Johnson, Sibylline’s Insight Team Manager, leads a discussion with Liana Semchuk, Europe & Eurasia Lead Analyst, and Alex Lord scrutinising the massing of Russian military forces on the border with Ukraine and combat intensification in the Donbas. These activities have elevated concerns of the potential threat of invasion and a military clash between the two countries. The developments mark a notable deterioration in the region's security environment, but an outright Russian military invasion of Ukraine is currently deemed unlikely. Nevertheless, further provocations and an escalation in hostilities along the current line of contact in the Donbas is likely in the short term.

Attack in Mozambique raises new questions over threats to gas industry

In this week’s podcast Philip Riding, MEA Lead Analyst, and Benedict Manzin, Africa Analyst, discuss the recent attack on Palma, Mozambique, which brought a temporary halt to the development of the country’s natural gas industry. While this project, which is Africa's largest single investment, has been periodically disrupted by growing insecurity over the last two years, the attack last week threatened the lives of dozens of expat contractors. There is now growing consensus among the international community about the need to assist the Mozambican government, but this is not a guarantee that security will improve for the energy sector in the months ahead.

  

Developments and Progress in Israel and Libya

Eloise Scott, Analyst for Middle East & North Africa, and Philip Riding, Lead Analyst for Middle East and Africa, join Director for Sibylline EMEA Jonathan Dunbar, to discuss the recent developments and progress in Israel and Libya

Israel goes to the polls next week for the fourth time in two years. The result is too close to call and will likely result in another round of messy coalition negotiations, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to retain the premiership and stave off his corruption trial. However, if a new administration manages to pass a budget, business could benefit from greater certainty and a more substantive post-Covid recovery package.

Elsewhere in the Mediterranean, Libya has seen recent progress towards having its first functional government in a decade. Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah's cabinet was sworn in this week and is now responsible for laying the groundwork for elections in December. Challenges remain however, especially around the presence of foreign forces in the country and threats to oil and gas infrastructure.

US-Russia Tensions

Liana Semchuk, Lead Analyst for Europe & Eurasia, and James Barth, Analyst for North America, join Director for Sibylline EMEA Jonathan Dunbar, to discuss tensions between the US and Russia increasing since Joe Biden became president of the United States. The risk of US sanctions against Russia expanding remains elevated in the months ahead as bipartisan pressure on Biden to take a tougher stance on Russia mounts. However, Washington may be forced to make compromises on its Russia stance concerning key infrastructural projects such as Nord Stream 2 as the Biden administration seeks to mend ties with Europe, particularly Germany. Further strains to the US / EU-Russia relationship will also come from Covid-19 vaccine disinformation allegations, cyber threats, and Washington's promotion of democracy in Eastern Europe.

Saudi-US relations and the wider impact of intelligence report on the murder of Jamal Khashoggi

This week’s podcast focuses on the recently declassified U.S. intelligence report confirming that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman approved the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Eloise Scott, analyst for Middle East & North Africa, and Phil Riding, Lead Analyst for Middle East and Africa, join Director for Sibylline Americas Greg Hoobler, to discuss the implications of the report for Western and regional governments dealing with Saudi Arabia, as well as the outlook for Western business operations in the Kingdom.

Myanmar post-coup political and security landscape and regional implications

This week’s podcast is hosted by Insight Team Manager Edward Johnson, featuring Dr Guo Yu, Lead ASPAC Analyst, and Aédán Mordecai, Asia-Pacific Analyst. Together they unpack Myanmar's post-coup political and security risk landscape, as well as the event's implications to the wider region. As tensions continue to escalate driven by the deaths of three protesters last weekend and the appearance of a security force crackdown, the risk of violence and further unrest persists. The outlook, for what was previously considered a fledgling democratic state with untapped investment potential, is increasingly ominous.

Sino-Australian Relations and the Risk of Arbitrary Detention in China

In this week’s podcast Sibylline’s Deputy Insight Manager Amy Reynolds is joined by Dr Guo Yu, Lead ASPAC Analyst, and Aédán Mordecai, Asia-Pacific Analyst. Together they analyse the consequences of Beijing charging Chinese-born Australian journalist Cheng Lei with supplying state secrets overseas. The former presenter of the Chinese state-run English-language channel CGTN was first detained in August 2020. Cheng's detention and subsequent criminal charges are framed against the backdrop of a deepening fracture in China-Australia relations. Cheng's arrest, together with a number of other foreign nationals currently under detention, has raised concerns about the risk of politicised justice for employees of foreign entities operating in China.

Brazil - Impeachment and Cabinet Tensions

In this week's podcast, Sibylline’s Americas Director Greg Hoobler is joined by Konrad Petraitis, embedded intelligence analyst. Their conversation touches on recent speculation surrounding President Bolsonaro's impeachment, followed by an overview of the challenges ahead of the country's general election and possible cabinet infighting that might upset markets.

EU Vaccine Distribution Setbacks

Sibylline’s EMEA Director Jonathan Dunbar is joined by John Breen, Lead Analyst of the Global Risk Team (GRT), and James Hannan, a GRT Analyst, for a discussion on vaccine distribution challenges in Europe. Their conversation unpacks the recent EU vaccine export row with the UK and how it amplified political tensions in Northern Ireland, followed by an overview of the logistical challenges facing European and global immunisation efforts and the disruptions this could have for business operations.