Sibylline Insight Podcast

Europe and the Pandemic Considerations under the 'New Normal'

Amid the ongoing discussions surrounding the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Europe, we take a look at some of the questions being asked. Split across three sessions, our podcast begins by looking at the current situation in Europe. Our second session considers the the social and economic impacts of the pandemic, drawing out the likely trends to emerge from them. We conclude with the final session covering some of the threats and issues that confronted Europe prior to the emergence of the virus and discuss how these are likely to evolve under the pandemic and into the longer-term. 

To find the first session ‘Where does Europe currently stand and what challenges will it face in the coming weeks?’ start at 0.00.

To find the second session ‘What are the implications of the longer-term social and economic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic?’ skip to 13.00.

To find the third session ‘How are Europe's pre-existing threats and issues likely to evolve amid the pandemic and beyond?’ skip to 23.00.

No Lockdown here - COVID Financial Crime

Our COO Tamara Makarenko has a conversation with leading financial crime experts Samantha Sheen and Payal Patel about the impact COVID is having on financial crime. Their discussion covers why financial crime is ‘surviving’ lockdown, new financial crime trends, the regulatory response, and how companies can safeguard themselves. The podcast ultimately outlines a few ‘Golden Rules’ of how we can build our resilience to this unfolding financial crime environment.

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

After the Virus - Leadership Lessons

Three renown global security leaders share their insights on how to be prepared to emerge from the disruption of COVID, identifying what needs to be rebuilt, the increasing importance of an intelligence-driven approach to corporate security, the “Spring Training” model for recovery, and why empathy is the cornerstone for leaders shepherding their teams amidst this crisis. Our US-based Director, Greg Hoobler, moderates this conversation with Paul Moxness, Mark Sanna, and Rich Davis.

After the Virus – What Next?

Do you want to know about squiggle theory, why W matters to U, the VERUCA world, why Belarus matters, and why you’ll be saying goodbye to business class? Tune in and tune out to our latest podcast, where CEO Justin Crump discusses the shape of the world after Covid with our top Analysts, Ed Johnson and Amy Reynolds.

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Turkey's opening of the border to migrants will drive policy risk and disruption across Europe

On 28 February, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan relaxed Turkey's border controls with EU member states Greece and Bulgaria, paving the way for large numbers of migrants and refugees to journey to Europe. Escalating conflict levels in Syria between Turkey and Russia-backed Syrian government forces have raised concerns of a repeat of the 2015 European migrant crisis, with policy uncertainty likely over the coming months.

 Key points include:

• Turkish policy driven by domestic pressures as well as escalating conflict levels in Syria
• Likely disruption for supply chains and travel due to enhanced border controls
• EU remains divided on approach to Turkish policy and ways to mitigate migration crisis

 

East Africa: Climatic conditions drive expansion of locust swarm increasing threats to food security

Locust swarms are devasting agriculture across Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, with some communities reporting 100% crop loss and Somalia announcing a state of emergency. These swarms are now spreading into South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and most recently into the Democratic Republic of Congo. This will significantly elevate threats to food security in a region where in October 2019 aid agencies recorded 13 million people facing critical levels of hunger, likely driving domestic unrest, particularly in Ethiopia ahead of elections in August.

 Key points include:

• The impact of climatic conditions on the growth of locust swarms
• The trajectory of the development of the current swarms
• The impact on food security, inflation and domestic unrest

Environmental Activism Trends 2020

Last year's unprecedented surge in environmental activism forced regulators to respond. The unprecedented amount of attention on climate and sustainability also shifted the focus of investors and attracted more attention to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) related topics, with the “environmental” component in particular, likely to remain a dominant trend in 2020 and beyond. A wide range of sectors are set to be affected moving forward as regulators, investors, and civil society grow increasingly more concerned with environmental activism and other ESG related issues. As traditional forms of demonstrations are set to continue targeting an increasingly broader set of industries from a wider range of activists, businesses should expect to see a further increase in discussions and activism around sustainability.

Key Points

• How does the surge in climate activism facilitate Environmental Social and Governance (ESG) agenda
• Which activists group are set to dominate the stage in 2020 and what tactics they are likely to employ
• What changes are regulators and judicial bodies likely to take in response to growing activism
• What should businesses expect

China-US: Challenges for foreign firms operating in China will persist despite trade deal

The operating environment for US and other foreign firms in China will not change significantly following the implementation of the ‘phase one’ Sino-US trade deal on 14 February. While the agreement will bring a reprieve for companies operating in some of the sectors that have been affected by the tariffs, challenges such as IP theft, forced technology transfers, and anti-competitive state subsidies for domestic firms will endure for the foreseeable future.

Key points include:

• Main provisions of the ‘phase one’ deal
• Prospects for a second deal
• Beijing’s goals of self-sufficiency and technological ascendancy

Coronavirus outbreak to continue to have significant impact on economic activity globally

The Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak has proven to be extremely disruptive in China and internationally as authorities struggle to contain the spread of the infection. As governments respond with widespread travel restrictions, and production chains are interrupted, economic growth in China is likely to be significantly impacted. With China's importance to the global economy at an all-time high, the knock-on impact will be amplified.

Key Points

• What are the prospects for the continued spread of the coronavirus
• How have the authorities responded to the outbreak
• What will be the impact on firms

 

Turkish foreign policy in the Eastern Mediterranean is driving maritime tensions

Turkey's focus on securing access to lucrative natural gas fields is driving a more aggressive foreign policy in the Eastern Mediterranean, including in the ongoing Libya conflict. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pressing on with illegal drilling around Cyprus, and in December signed a controversial maritime deal with Libya. Escalating tensions between Turkey and a range of international actors over the issue are therefore increasingly likely to result in maritime disruption.

Key points include:

• What is driving Turkish foreign policy
• Recent developments including Turkish cyber attacks
• Threat to the maritime sector