Sibylline Insight Podcast

Russia’s constitutional reforms to secure Putin’s influence beyond

On 15 January, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev's government resigned after President Vladimir Putin proposed constitutional reforms that would give more power to various government bodies – whilst ensuring that Russia remains a presidential republic. A career technocrat and former head of Federal Tax Service (FTS) Mikhail Mishustin was appointed as new prime minister same day, in what constitutes a power reshuffle designed to ensure long-term stability of Putin's regime and prepare the ground for the transition of power in 2024 and beyond.

Venezuela's prolonged political crisis will worsen bilateral relations with Colombia

On 5 January, Venezuela tumbled in a new political crisis when the leadership of the Venezuela’s National Assembly was challenged by two rival speakers: opposition leader Juan Guaidó, backed by the international community, and dissident opposition lawmaker Luis Parra, supported by President Nicolás Maduro and Russia. As the political standoff continues in the coming months, the deepening of the economic and humanitarian crisis will exacerbate tensions with neighbouring Colombia.

Key points include:

• The latest political developments in Venezuela and their domestic implications
• The impact of Venezuela’s political crisis on Colombia
• Our predictions for Venezuela and its bilateral relation with Colombia

Hong Kong - National Day will be a flashpoint for Hong Kong anti-government protests

Anti-government and anti-China protests have been ongoing in Hong Kong since early June and show no sign of abating. While the majority of the demonstrators have been protesting peacefully, there has been violence on the margins, with the use of water cannon and petrol bombs posing elevated incidental risks to people and property in the vicinity. China's National Day on 1 October threatens an escalation in the violence and disruption, as the hardline demonstrators seek to embarrass Beijing as it celebrates the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic.

Key points include:
• The tactical manifestation of the protest movement.
• Direct threats to businesses operating in the territory.
• Our predictions for National Day and longer-term forecast.

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcasts - Sudan – Re-engagement with Negotiations Unlikely to Boost Stability or Result in Significant Transfer of Powe

On 3 June, the governing Transitional Military Council opted to utilise force to disperse protesters who had been gathered in central Khartoum since the fall of former president Omar al-Bashir. In doing so they indicated their commitment to the protection of their assets and the retention of their power over Sudan. As such, the resumption of negotiations is unlikely to result in meaningful change, increasing the likelihood of further protest action and enduring instability through the coming months.

Key points include:

• Explanation of why negotiations initially broke down.
• The ability of foreign powers to influence negotiations.
• The trajectory of growing division within the protest movement.

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Risks for Canadian Businesses Remain Elevated as Meng Wanzhou Case Proceeds

On 16 May, the Chinese government announced that they have formally arrested two Canadian nationals – Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor – who have been detained for over five months, on charges of violating state secrets. This marks the latest development in the highly politicised cases of Kovrig, Spavor and Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou, which have led to an atmosphere of elevated tensions between China and Canada in recent months. As Beijing seeks to exert pressure on Ottawa, Canadian companies operating in China are facings risks ranging from arbitrary detentions of staff to enhanced inspections and customs delays.

Key points include:

• The latest development in the cases of Meng, Kovrig and Spavor
• The impact of Beijing’s economic pressure campaign on Canadian companies
• The likely trajectory of this situation and flashpoints for related risks

 We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast - Sudan - Tensions Between Civilians and Transitional Military Council Drive Threats to Stability

Since the removal of President Omar al-Bashir on 11 April, protests have continued, with tensions remaining elevated between civilians demanding meaningful reform and a transitional military council attempting to retain executive control of the state.

Key points include:

• The formation of a movement to demand a transition to civilian rule
• The objectives of the Transitional Military Council
• The trajectory of growing internal division and its impact on government stability and policy risk

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast - Sri Lanka - Easter Sunday Attack Triggers State of Emergency and Could Ignite Religious Tensions

On 21 April, suicide bombers killed at least 359 people and injured more than 500 at churches and hotels across Sri Lanka. The government has said that a local Islamist group carried out the attacks with the assistance of foreign jihadists, while Islamic State (IS) has claimed responsibility.

 

Key points include:

 

• Who may have been behind the attacks
• Possible motivations for the bombings
• Potential local and regional security implications following the attacks

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast - Venezuela - Resolution to Crisis Unlikely in Coming Months

10 April marked three months since opposition leader Juan Guaidó declared himself as Venezuela’s interim president following the start of President Nicolas Maduro’s highly contested second term in office on 10 January. Despite Guaidó enjoying strong domestic support and backing from the EU, US and the majority of Latin America governments, Maduro has been able to remain in power.

Key points include:

• The government’s recent crackdown on the opposition
• Possible scenarios in Venezuela over the coming months
• Factors that would herald an escalation of the current situation
• Key triggers and tripwires that will shape the next phase of the Venezuelan crisis

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast - Algeria - Bouteflika's Resignation Drives Establishment Infighting

_{On 2 April, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika resigned from office, leaving Algeria’s political future uncertain. This was the culmination of nearly two months of protests, which look unlikely to subside as the establishment seeks to retain power. The concessions to demonstrators have encouraged demands for substantive constitutional reforms, which the military and political elite may be unwilling to grant. Infighting within the establishment will directly impact business operations.}

_{Key points include:}

• _{The developments that caused Bouteflika’s resignation}
• _{The political ramifications of his departure}
• _{Likely impact on business}

_{We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk}

 

Sibylline Podcast - Israel - Policy Continuity Likely Despite Fraught Election Campaign

On 9 April, Israel will hold general elections, pitting incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against main rival Benny Gantz. Polling indicates this will be a closely fought contest, with a number of potential outcomes. This is an election where policy has been overshadowed by personalities, not least due to Netanyahu’s impending indictment on charges of corruption.

Key points include:

• The main candidates to be the next Prime Minister, their policies and chances of success
• Potential electoral outcomes in the Knesset, where neither candidate has an easy route to a majority
• Likely impact on the business environment in the event of a victory for Gantz or Natanyahu

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk