Sibylline Insight Podcast

Turkey's opening of the border to migrants will drive policy risk and disruption across Europe

On 28 February, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan relaxed Turkey's border controls with EU member states Greece and Bulgaria, paving the way for large numbers of migrants and refugees to journey to Europe. Escalating conflict levels in Syria between Turkey and Russia-backed Syrian government forces have raised concerns of a repeat of the 2015 European migrant crisis, with policy uncertainty likely over the coming months.

 Key points include:

• Turkish policy driven by domestic pressures as well as escalating conflict levels in Syria
• Likely disruption for supply chains and travel due to enhanced border controls
• EU remains divided on approach to Turkish policy and ways to mitigate migration crisis

 

East Africa: Climatic conditions drive expansion of locust swarm increasing threats to food security

Locust swarms are devasting agriculture across Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, with some communities reporting 100% crop loss and Somalia announcing a state of emergency. These swarms are now spreading into South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and most recently into the Democratic Republic of Congo. This will significantly elevate threats to food security in a region where in October 2019 aid agencies recorded 13 million people facing critical levels of hunger, likely driving domestic unrest, particularly in Ethiopia ahead of elections in August.

 Key points include:

• The impact of climatic conditions on the growth of locust swarms
• The trajectory of the development of the current swarms
• The impact on food security, inflation and domestic unrest

Environmental Activism Trends 2020

Last year's unprecedented surge in environmental activism forced regulators to respond. The unprecedented amount of attention on climate and sustainability also shifted the focus of investors and attracted more attention to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) related topics, with the “environmental” component in particular, likely to remain a dominant trend in 2020 and beyond. A wide range of sectors are set to be affected moving forward as regulators, investors, and civil society grow increasingly more concerned with environmental activism and other ESG related issues. As traditional forms of demonstrations are set to continue targeting an increasingly broader set of industries from a wider range of activists, businesses should expect to see a further increase in discussions and activism around sustainability.

Key Points

• How does the surge in climate activism facilitate Environmental Social and Governance (ESG) agenda
• Which activists group are set to dominate the stage in 2020 and what tactics they are likely to employ
• What changes are regulators and judicial bodies likely to take in response to growing activism
• What should businesses expect

China-US: Challenges for foreign firms operating in China will persist despite trade deal

The operating environment for US and other foreign firms in China will not change significantly following the implementation of the ‘phase one’ Sino-US trade deal on 14 February. While the agreement will bring a reprieve for companies operating in some of the sectors that have been affected by the tariffs, challenges such as IP theft, forced technology transfers, and anti-competitive state subsidies for domestic firms will endure for the foreseeable future.

Key points include:

• Main provisions of the ‘phase one’ deal
• Prospects for a second deal
• Beijing’s goals of self-sufficiency and technological ascendancy

Coronavirus outbreak to continue to have significant impact on economic activity globally

The Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak has proven to be extremely disruptive in China and internationally as authorities struggle to contain the spread of the infection. As governments respond with widespread travel restrictions, and production chains are interrupted, economic growth in China is likely to be significantly impacted. With China's importance to the global economy at an all-time high, the knock-on impact will be amplified.

Key Points

• What are the prospects for the continued spread of the coronavirus
• How have the authorities responded to the outbreak
• What will be the impact on firms

 

Turkish foreign policy in the Eastern Mediterranean is driving maritime tensions

Turkey's focus on securing access to lucrative natural gas fields is driving a more aggressive foreign policy in the Eastern Mediterranean, including in the ongoing Libya conflict. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pressing on with illegal drilling around Cyprus, and in December signed a controversial maritime deal with Libya. Escalating tensions between Turkey and a range of international actors over the issue are therefore increasingly likely to result in maritime disruption.

Key points include:

• What is driving Turkish foreign policy
• Recent developments including Turkish cyber attacks
• Threat to the maritime sector

Russia’s constitutional reforms to secure Putin’s influence beyond

On 15 January, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev's government resigned after President Vladimir Putin proposed constitutional reforms that would give more power to various government bodies – whilst ensuring that Russia remains a presidential republic. A career technocrat and former head of Federal Tax Service (FTS) Mikhail Mishustin was appointed as new prime minister same day, in what constitutes a power reshuffle designed to ensure long-term stability of Putin's regime and prepare the ground for the transition of power in 2024 and beyond.

Venezuela's prolonged political crisis will worsen bilateral relations with Colombia

On 5 January, Venezuela tumbled in a new political crisis when the leadership of the Venezuela’s National Assembly was challenged by two rival speakers: opposition leader Juan Guaidó, backed by the international community, and dissident opposition lawmaker Luis Parra, supported by President Nicolás Maduro and Russia. As the political standoff continues in the coming months, the deepening of the economic and humanitarian crisis will exacerbate tensions with neighbouring Colombia.

Key points include:

• The latest political developments in Venezuela and their domestic implications
• The impact of Venezuela’s political crisis on Colombia
• Our predictions for Venezuela and its bilateral relation with Colombia

Hong Kong - National Day will be a flashpoint for Hong Kong anti-government protests

Anti-government and anti-China protests have been ongoing in Hong Kong since early June and show no sign of abating. While the majority of the demonstrators have been protesting peacefully, there has been violence on the margins, with the use of water cannon and petrol bombs posing elevated incidental risks to people and property in the vicinity. China's National Day on 1 October threatens an escalation in the violence and disruption, as the hardline demonstrators seek to embarrass Beijing as it celebrates the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic.

Key points include:
• The tactical manifestation of the protest movement.
• Direct threats to businesses operating in the territory.
• Our predictions for National Day and longer-term forecast.

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcasts - Sudan – Re-engagement with Negotiations Unlikely to Boost Stability or Result in Significant Transfer of Powe

On 3 June, the governing Transitional Military Council opted to utilise force to disperse protesters who had been gathered in central Khartoum since the fall of former president Omar al-Bashir. In doing so they indicated their commitment to the protection of their assets and the retention of their power over Sudan. As such, the resumption of negotiations is unlikely to result in meaningful change, increasing the likelihood of further protest action and enduring instability through the coming months.

Key points include:

• Explanation of why negotiations initially broke down.
• The ability of foreign powers to influence negotiations.
• The trajectory of growing division within the protest movement.

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk