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Welcome to Sibylline Insight, the podcast where we delve into the intricate world of global intelligence and geopolitics. Join our hosts as they sit down with members of the Global Intelligence Team to provide in-depth analysis and context to the most pressing geopolitical developments of our time. Each episode features long-form interviews that unravel the complexities behind current events, offering listeners a unique perspective on international affairs. Whether you’re a seasoned analyst or simply curious about the forces shaping our world, Refined Insight promises to inform, enlighten, and engage. Tune in for thought-provoking conversations, expert opinions, and comprehensive insights that go beyond the headlines. Welcome to a deeper understanding of global dynamics with Sibylline Insight.
Episodes
Friday Mar 22, 2019
Friday Mar 22, 2019
On 21 March, the European Council granted Prime Minister Theresa May a delay to the UK's departure date from the EU until 12 April, with a potential extension until 22 May. This is significantly shorter than the 30 June delay which May asked for, highlighting the growing pressure on the prime minister and an increasing likelihood of a 'no deal' Brexit.
Key points include:
- The plausibility of the Withdrawal Treaty passing in an upcoming vote in the UK parliament
- The prospects of a parliamentary breakdown and/or a general election
- The likelihood, indicators, and immediate impacts of a 'no deal' scenario
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Thursday Mar 14, 2019
Thursday Mar 14, 2019
On 31 March, Ukraine will hold presidential elections, with the race currently too close to call. Incumbent Petro Poroshenko, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy are leading the polls with a second round likely. This podcast will assess the key issues of the campaign and determine the impact of the uncertainty surrounding the election's outcome.
Key points include:
- Direction of the Donbas conflict over 2019
- Scope for reform beyond the elections
- Russia's response to the uncertain election outcome
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Tuesday Mar 05, 2019
Tuesday Mar 05, 2019
The 14 February suicide bomb attack on Indian paramilitary troops prompted an extended fallout between Islamabad and New Delhi with a series of retaliatory actions raising fears of a broader conflict. This podcast will examine the current status of India-Pakistan relations and likelihood of escalation to broader confrontational scenarios.
Key points include:
- Context of the war in Kashmir
- Current status of India-Pakistan relations
- Key triggers of a wider conflict
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Friday Feb 22, 2019
Friday Feb 22, 2019
Ahead of European Parliament elections in May 2019 where mainstream centrist factions are set to lose their absolute majority for the first time in EU history, we assess policy risks and operational implications of the election.
Key points include:
- Implications for the policies and configuration of the new European Commission
- Consequences for policy risk in the European Union
- Operational impacts on the level of individual states
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Wednesday Feb 06, 2019
Wednesday Feb 06, 2019
On 31 January, France, Germany and the UK launched a special purpose vehicle to facilitate trade between the EU and Iran. The vehicle, termed the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX) will initially be applicable for transactions involving humanitarian aid, food and pharmaceuticals, with the potential to extend to cover other industries in the coming months. Here we discuss the drivers behind INSTEX and its implications on the regional and business environment both in Europe and the Middle East.
Key points include:
- How and why INSTEX was introduced and current EU policy towards Iran
- Implications for Iran’s socio-economic health and domestic stability
- The likely trajectory of EU-Iranian relations amid renewed US-imposed sanctions
- The future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) amid rising regional tensions
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Friday Jan 25, 2019
Friday Jan 25, 2019
Since the announcement of the US’ intended military withdrawal in Syria, regional stakeholders have intensified their political wrangling over influence and power in the region. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan met in Moscow on 23 January, where questions over the future of a planned security zone in Idlib dominated the discussion.
Key points include:
- The changing nature of the Syrian conflict and how this may develop throughout the coming year
- Regional and international ramifications of persistent divisions over the conflict
- The likely trajectory for Syrian reconstruction throughout the coming year amid the prospects of escalation
- Long-term implications for businesses seeking to re-engage with Syria
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Friday Jan 18, 2019
Friday Jan 18, 2019
The 17 January warnings made by Chinese Ambassador to Canada Lu Shaye exacerbated the deterioration in relations between the two countries. The incident adds to the recent attention given to relations between the US, Canada, and China.
In this podcast we break down the areas of concern between the countries into three different categories: the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou and resulting fallout, ongoing Sino-American trade negotiations, and US-driven national security concerns regarding Chinese companies. After analysing these three categories, we give our predictions on how they will evolve, and highlight associated risks to Canadian and American companies and individuals.
Key points include:
- Analysis of the relationship between the scrutiny of Huawei, ongoing trade negotiations, and concerns over espionage and intellectual property theft
- Implications for US and Canadian travelers and operations in the China
- Predictions regarding US government policy and oversight regarding Chinese firms in the coming months
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Tuesday Dec 11, 2018
Tuesday Dec 11, 2018
The 25 November seizure of three Ukrainian naval vessels by Russian forces in the Kerch Strait has further exacerbated tensions between Kyiv and Moscow, with Ukraine implementing martial law and banning Russians from entering the country.
In this podcast we look at how these events are shaping the operating environment ahead of the 31 March presidential election and look at the risks of further disruption, the threat to government stability, and impacts on regional business operations.
Key points include:
- Analysis of the Azov incident and subsequent Ukrainian reactions
- The implications of the measures in Ukraine and the region
- A look ahead to Ukraine’s elections and potential flashpoints.
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Tuesday Dec 04, 2018
Tuesday Dec 04, 2018
On 4 December, Prime Minister Édouard Philippe announced a 6-month suspension of the fuel tax and other appeasing measures in response to recent violent unrest in France. We expect this will help reduce the numbers of demonstrators in the streets, though further disruption and elevated property damage risks are likely to endure.
Key points include:
- Analysis of key actors and agendas in the recent protests
- Assessment of the government response and its consequences
- Implications for the long-term unrest risks in France
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Friday Nov 30, 2018
Friday Nov 30, 2018
Sri Lanka’s ongoing political deadlock and recent anti-blasphemy protests in Pakistan underscore the willingness of powerful groups and individuals to exploit religious fault lines in order to further a political agenda. In this podcast we examine the recent evolution of this trend in South Asia and explore the affiliated security risks.
Key points include:
- The presence of more hard-line religious sentiment in Pakistan
- The resurgence of ethno-religious tensions in Sri Lanka
- The likelihood of Hindu Nationalism increasing ahead of India’s 2019 elections
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk