Sibylline Insight Podcast

Sibylline Podcast – Germany - Merkel Withdrawal Adds to Moderate Political Uncertainty

Following Chancellor Angela Merkel’s 29 October announcement that she will not stand for re-election as CDU party leader in the upcoming vote, we look at her most likely successors and analyse the long-term impacts on the political and economic situation in Germany and the European Union.

Key points include:

• Analysis of the upcoming CDU leadership election
• Drivers of the main political dynamics in Germany
• Viability of the Merkel cabinet in 2019 and beyond
• Implications for EU economic stability and migration cooperation

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast – Syria – Improved regional trade likely as Idlib ceasefire holds following Istanbul summit

Following on from the 27 October summit in Istanbul that featured Turkish, Russian, French and German leadership this podcast asks what is next for the Syrian conflict.We assess the meeting itself and viability of the Idlib ceasefire, looking at the roles of Turkey, Iran and Russia in the future of the conflict and what this means for potential short and long term economic and security developments both in Syria and the wider region.

Key Points Include:

• What the Idlib ceasefire means for the principle participants
• The role of Russia, Iran and Turkey in the future of the Syrian conflict
• Scope for an enduring diplomatic solution and possible reconstruction
• The economic opportunities and impact on regional supply chains of the current ceasefire

Sibylline Podcast – Saudi Arabia – Controversy Surrounding Ongoing Khashoggi Case Anticipated to Elevate Short-term Reputational Risks

Since 2 October, Saudi Arabia has experienced significant international criticism over the death of popular journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul, Turkey. On 23 October, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan reaffirmed Ankara’s willingness to cooperate with the investigation, whilst pressuring Riyadh for more transparency regarding several key features about the case.

In this podcast we discuss the short and medium term ramifications from a regional and international perspective.

Key points include:

• An overview of the situation and analysis of Erdogan’s speech
• Political implications for Saudi-Turkish-US relations
• Implications for commercial interests in Saudi Arabia and Turkey

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast - Mozambique – Local Elections Unlikely to Undermine Ongoing Peace Process

On 10 October, Mozambique held local elections. Despite concerns of a repetition of the violence of 2014’s polls, the campaign and polling day were broadly peaceful save for sporadic incidents of unrest.

In this podcast we analyse these developments, and look at what they mean for the future of the peace process and other challenges going forward.

Key points include:

• How the election evolved
• How the election may affect the peace process
• The broader outlook for Mozambique

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast – Brazil – Elections likely to go to second round with a credible chance of a Haddad Presidency

Brazil goes to the polling booths on 7 October in a General Election. Right wing presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro and Workers’ Party nomination Fernando Haddad have a strong lead in sentiment polls, and a second round vote is broadly anticipated on 28 October. In this podcast we look at the potential ultimate outcomes and what they would mean for the future of Brazil’s security and operating environment.

Key points include:

• Immediate term issues around polling day
• Likely outcomes of round one
• Possible outcomes of round two
• What a Haddad presidency might look like
• What a Bolsonaro presidency might look like

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast – Japan – Economic and foreign policy continuity expected during Abe’s highly anticipated final term

Incumbent Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is highly likely to win tomorrow’s party leadership contest, thus enabling him to retain the premiership for a third and final term.

In this podcast, we discuss what such an outcome will mean for Japan’s economic, foreign and defence policy, and how this will impact Japan’s socio-economic health as well as the broader regional environment.

Key points include:

• Why Abe’s victory seems so certain
• The challenges to Abe’s attempts at economic reform
• A likely continuation in Japan’s pragmatic foreign policy
• Anticipated resistance to attempted constitutional change

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast - Russia/China - The Vostok Military Exercises and the Evolving Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership

With Russia’s Vostok military exercises taking place this week - on the grandest scale since the Cold War era and involving China for the first time – we discuss the domestic significance as well as the evolving relationship between Moscow and Beijing. With signs of greater cooperation, as well as numerous potential points of contention, we consider how best to interpret the relationship and how it is likely to progress.

Key points include:

• Russia’s domestic economic problems
• Increasingly strained relations between both China and Russia and the West
• How pragmatism and mutual economic benefits are driving cooperation
• Competition in Eurasia as a potential source of conflict

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast – Ukraine - The Zakharchenko Assassination: What it means for the Donbas conflict and Urkaine

The 31 August killing of separatist leader Aleksander Zakharchenko in Donetsk threatens to elicit short term instability in eastern Ukraine and Kyiv. Moscow will likely assert greater direct control over the Donetsk People’s Republic following the assassination with a refocusing of its Donbas strategy towards the reintegration of the separatist-held regions into Ukraine as it simultaneously seeks to influence upcoming Ukrainian presidential elections.

In this podcast we analyse possible motives behind Zakharchenko’s killing and assess the wider impact on Ukraine ahead of 2019’s election cycle.

 

Key points include:

• Why Zakharchenko’s killing matters in relation to resolution of the conflict
• The impact on Ukraine, with instability and polarisation likely to be exacerbated by Moscow as it seeks to impact Ukrainian presidential elections
• Possible motives and preparators of the assassination

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast - Turkey/US – Growing Bilateral Tensions Raise Risks from Popular Anti-American Sentiment in Turkey

Over recent months, the tensions between the US and Turkey have escalated, notably in the form of bilateral trade sanctions.

In this podcast we look at why this is occurring and what the main drivers are, both superficially and under the surface. We identify that the harnessing of nationalist and even religious sentiment in this situation is causing popular anger towards the US within Turkey, as demonstrated by the recent drive-by shooting of the US embassy. We also look at the broader risks to the business environment in Turkey in the coming months.

Key points include:

• The latest iterations of reciprocal tensions
• Key drivers, internationally and from each side
• Predictions on how this will evolve over the coming months
• Red flags and indications of severe escalation

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk

Sibylline Podcast – Greece/Macedonia – Political Uncertainty and Risks of Unrest Likely to Endure in the Long Term

Ahead of the 30 September referendum on the Macedonia name dispute deal – known as the Prespes Agreement – we discuss the underlying geopolitical, ethnic, and security aspects of the dispute and draw implications for the long-term operating environment.

Key points include:

• Social and political polarisation in Greece and Macedonia
• Projections relating to government stability in both states
• Assessment of areas at highest risk from civil unrest risks
• Involvement of regional actors, notably Russia and Turkey 

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk