Sibylline Insight Podcast

Tensions in Kosovo and Israel and Attacks on US Energy Infrastructure

In this premier episode of the Sibylline Forecast, Gareth Westwood, Head of the Global Intelligence Branch, is joined by Anastasia Chisholm, Sydney Stewart and Zsofia Wolford to discuss rising tensions in Israel amid the return of Benjamin Netanyahu, extremist attacks targeting US energy infrastructure, and increased civil unrest in Kosovo.

 

Sibylline Forecast marks the launch of a new initiative to provide our listeners and subscribers with more streamlined and diverse analysis of global events. Now, you can listen to our new format and watch on our YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV

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Tunisian Elections

On 17 December, Tunisians will cast their ballots in the country's much-anticipated parliamentary elections. The elections are the first following President Kais Saied's suspension of parliament in July 2021, having since extended his executive authority. Combined with a new constitution and electoral law, this has fostered an increasingly restrictive political environment in recent months, heightening domestic and international concerns over Tunisia's democratic backslide.

Overall, sentiment surrounding the parliamentary elections has been negative, amid a boycott from political parties and groups. Widespread political disenfranchisement is likely to contribute to a low voter turnout and the heightened threat of unrest in the coming days and weeks. The incoming government, likely to comprise President Saied's supporters, is set to face continued challenges in advancing economic reforms to secure IMF funding in 2023, due to strong union opposition, which is likely to undermine investor confidence in the coming months. 

The Fallout of the 2022 US Midterm Elections

Join our hosts Konrad Petraitis (Lead Americas Analyst), Sydney Stewart (North America Analyst) and Leo Collins (Dangerous Organisations and Individuals Analyst) as they discuss the ramifications of the 2022 US Midterm elections results.

 

Much to the surprise of many pollsters, political commentators and indeed voters, the 8 November midterm elections delivered an unusual victory to the incumbent Democratic party and the rumoured ‘red wave’ proved to be more of a ripple as Democrats retain control of the Senate while Republicans take control of the House. Our hosts discuss what this new political landscape will mean for future political dynamics, businesses, the economy, extremism and political violence in the United States as we look towards 2024.

Pakistan’s volatile political landscape following the Imran Khan shooting

Join your host, Dr Guo Yu, Sibylline's Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst along with Supriya Ravishankar, our APAC Analyst, to discuss Pakistan's ongoing political instability and the wider economic and security implications.

 

On 3 November, former prime minister and leader of the main opposition party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Imran Khan, was shot and injured during a high-profile anti-government protest rally dubbed the 'long march'. The incident has further inflamed the already elevated tensions between the PTI and the Pakistan Muslim League (N)-led government, with Khan and the PTI accusing incumbent Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the army of being responsible for the 'assassination attempt'. As Khan seeks to return to power while the current government continues to resist calls for an early election, Pakistan's domestic political situation looks set to remain highly volatile in the coming weeks.

Prospects for an ELN-Colombian Government Peace Deal

Join your host Leo Collins, our Organisations and Dangerous Individuals Analyst along with Konrad Petraitis, our Principal Americas Analyst and Eduardo Damm Braga, our Latin America Analyst, to discuss the latest developments in the ELN-Colombian government peace deal.

 

November will mark the start of peace negotiations between Colombia and the ELN. On November 1 in Caracas, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and Colombian President Gustavo Petro met to discuss efforts to improve bilateral ties and set the framework for talks between Bogota and the ELN guerrillas. Both sides are expected to hold talks in Caracas, which are likely to result in a decline in the guerrillas' high-profile crimes, including such as assassinations, kidnappings and IED attacks on government or security personnel.

Discussing the Security Implications of the COP27 Climate Summit

Join your host Benedict Manzin Lead Sub Saharan African Analyst, along with Ahmed Alqarout, our Lead Middle East & Africa Analyst and Anastasia Chisholm, our Middle East and North Africa Analyst to discuss the COP27 conference in Egypt.

Egypt's hosting of the 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27) in South Sinai's coastal resort city of Sharm El Sheikh will take place amid heightened international scrutiny from activist groups. This is largely a result of the government's human rights track record and the crackdown on civil society. Both domestic and international climate, civil rights and human rights activist organisations are almost certain to face obstructions to their COP27-related activities and participation in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, Egyptian authorities have maintained and adopted enhanced measures aimed at mitigating the risk of widespread domestic unrest and the threat of terror attacks on the COP27 venue and nearby soft targets in Sharm El Sheikh. The government's handling of the climate conference will impact its objectives of establishing Egypt as a trusted host country for multilateral summits and events, including Egypt's bids to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup and the 2036 Olympic Games. As such, event sponsors and businesses engaging with Cairo are likely to face elevated brand image risks in the coming months

Discussing Recent Military Provocations by North Korea and Possible Regional Implications

In this week's podcast, join your host, Dr Guo Yu, Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst, and Asia-Pacific Intelligence Analysts Hans Horan and Riccardo Cociani to discuss recent military provocations by North Korea and possible implications for geopolitical risks and business operations.

 

Tensions in and around the Korean Peninsula have risen markedly amid Pyongyang conducting a new wave of missile launches and reports of an imminent nuclear test. As a show of determination to remain a nuclear state, North Korea has also adopted a new nuclear law that seemingly permits the right to 'pre-emptive strike'. In response, the US and its allies – Japan and South Korea – have sought to bolster military cooperation and force readiness through a number of joint exercises.

Discussing the Brazilian Presidential Elections - Fierce Dispute and Unexpected Result Leads Candidates to a Second Round

In this week's podcast, join your host, Benedict Manzin, our Lead Sub Saharan Africa Analyst, along with Konrad Petraitis, our Lead Americas Analyst, and Eduardo Braga our Latin America Analyst, to discuss the unexpected result of the first round of the Brazilian presidential election, the alliances being formed, and the outlook for the runoff.

With the announcement of a second round of voting for the presidency of Brazil, after Jair Bolsonaro outperformed the expected results, undermining the chances of candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to win the elections in the first round, new alliances arose, demonstrations became stronger, and the questioning regarding the accuracy of the electoral polls was reignited.

Pakistan: Devastating Floods Drive Political and Socio-Economic Instability

In this week's podcast, join your host, Dr Guo Yu, Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst and fellow APAC analysts, Supriya Ravishankar and Aédán Mordecai to discuss the devastating floods in Pakistan and the likely political, economic, and security implications.

 

Record-high monsoon rainfall has resulted in the worst floods in Pakistan's modern history hitting large parts of the country. With approximately one-third of the country submerged under water, the floods have affected over 60 percent of the population and caused significant damage to critical infrastructure and key sectors like agriculture and textiles, while the death toll continues to climb. Given the very limited institutional capacity, the unfolding natural disaster will further destabilise Pakistan's fragile economy and present fresh challenges to the under-pressure Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's government in the months ahead, amid the ongoing political wrangling with the opposition led by ex-PM Imran Khan.

Discussing Israel’s launch of Operation Breaking Dawn in Gaza

In this week's podcast, join your host Valeria Scuto, our Middle East and North Africa Analyst, along with Anastasia Chisholm, our Associate Analyst and Ahmed Alqarout, our Lead Middle East and North Africa Analyst to discuss Israel's launch of Operation Breaking Dawn against targets of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in the Gaza Strip on 5 August that prompted a weekend of cross-border confrontations with the group.

 

Despite the agreement of a ceasefire on 7 August, ethno-religious tensions remain high in the Palestinian Territories, following frequent Israeli military raids and arrests on Palestinian militant group leadership in the West Bank.

 

The Israeli military's targeting of PIJ specifically, while aiming to avoid escalations with Hamas, in part reflects the varying degrees to which both groups are willing to engage in armed confrontations with Israel, with PIJ being the more willing party. The latest escalations are underpinned by an intensification in Israeli counter-terrorism operations in the West Bank since April, in response to a series of terror attacks on Israeli territory. Ongoing operations will continue to drive tensions with Palestinian militant groups, increasing the threat of repeated bursts of short-term, limited armed escalations in the coming months.