Sibylline Insight Podcast

Discussing the Security Implications of the COP27 Climate Summit

Join your host Benedict Manzin Lead Sub Saharan African Analyst, along with Ahmed Alqarout, our Lead Middle East & Africa Analyst and Anastasia Chisholm, our Middle East and North Africa Analyst to discuss the COP27 conference in Egypt.

Egypt's hosting of the 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27) in South Sinai's coastal resort city of Sharm El Sheikh will take place amid heightened international scrutiny from activist groups. This is largely a result of the government's human rights track record and the crackdown on civil society. Both domestic and international climate, civil rights and human rights activist organisations are almost certain to face obstructions to their COP27-related activities and participation in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, Egyptian authorities have maintained and adopted enhanced measures aimed at mitigating the risk of widespread domestic unrest and the threat of terror attacks on the COP27 venue and nearby soft targets in Sharm El Sheikh. The government's handling of the climate conference will impact its objectives of establishing Egypt as a trusted host country for multilateral summits and events, including Egypt's bids to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup and the 2036 Olympic Games. As such, event sponsors and businesses engaging with Cairo are likely to face elevated brand image risks in the coming months

Discussing Recent Military Provocations by North Korea and Possible Regional Implications

In this week's podcast, join your host, Dr Guo Yu, Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst, and Asia-Pacific Intelligence Analysts Hans Horan and Riccardo Cociani to discuss recent military provocations by North Korea and possible implications for geopolitical risks and business operations.

 

Tensions in and around the Korean Peninsula have risen markedly amid Pyongyang conducting a new wave of missile launches and reports of an imminent nuclear test. As a show of determination to remain a nuclear state, North Korea has also adopted a new nuclear law that seemingly permits the right to 'pre-emptive strike'. In response, the US and its allies – Japan and South Korea – have sought to bolster military cooperation and force readiness through a number of joint exercises.

Discussing the Brazilian Presidential Elections - Fierce Dispute and Unexpected Result Leads Candidates to a Second Round

In this week's podcast, join your host, Benedict Manzin, our Lead Sub Saharan Africa Analyst, along with Konrad Petraitis, our Lead Americas Analyst, and Eduardo Braga our Latin America Analyst, to discuss the unexpected result of the first round of the Brazilian presidential election, the alliances being formed, and the outlook for the runoff.

With the announcement of a second round of voting for the presidency of Brazil, after Jair Bolsonaro outperformed the expected results, undermining the chances of candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to win the elections in the first round, new alliances arose, demonstrations became stronger, and the questioning regarding the accuracy of the electoral polls was reignited.

Pakistan: Devastating Floods Drive Political and Socio-Economic Instability

In this week's podcast, join your host, Dr Guo Yu, Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst and fellow APAC analysts, Supriya Ravishankar and Aédán Mordecai to discuss the devastating floods in Pakistan and the likely political, economic, and security implications.

 

Record-high monsoon rainfall has resulted in the worst floods in Pakistan's modern history hitting large parts of the country. With approximately one-third of the country submerged under water, the floods have affected over 60 percent of the population and caused significant damage to critical infrastructure and key sectors like agriculture and textiles, while the death toll continues to climb. Given the very limited institutional capacity, the unfolding natural disaster will further destabilise Pakistan's fragile economy and present fresh challenges to the under-pressure Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's government in the months ahead, amid the ongoing political wrangling with the opposition led by ex-PM Imran Khan.

Discussing Israel’s launch of Operation Breaking Dawn in Gaza

In this week's podcast, join your host Valeria Scuto, our Middle East and North Africa Analyst, along with Anastasia Chisholm, our Associate Analyst and Ahmed Alqarout, our Lead Middle East and North Africa Analyst to discuss Israel's launch of Operation Breaking Dawn against targets of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in the Gaza Strip on 5 August that prompted a weekend of cross-border confrontations with the group.

 

Despite the agreement of a ceasefire on 7 August, ethno-religious tensions remain high in the Palestinian Territories, following frequent Israeli military raids and arrests on Palestinian militant group leadership in the West Bank.

 

The Israeli military's targeting of PIJ specifically, while aiming to avoid escalations with Hamas, in part reflects the varying degrees to which both groups are willing to engage in armed confrontations with Israel, with PIJ being the more willing party. The latest escalations are underpinned by an intensification in Israeli counter-terrorism operations in the West Bank since April, in response to a series of terror attacks on Israeli territory. Ongoing operations will continue to drive tensions with Palestinian militant groups, increasing the threat of repeated bursts of short-term, limited armed escalations in the coming months.

PODCAST: Hate Speech and Ethnic Tensions Raise Threat of Violence Around Kenya’s 9 August General Election

In this week's podcast, join Benedict Manzin our Sub Sahara Africa Analyst, and Edie Lipton our Associate Analyst, as we discuss the general election in Kenya.

 

The polls on 9 August look set to be one of the closest elections in recent Kenyan history. Opposition leader Raila Odinga only narrowly leads Deputy President William Ruto in opinion polls, elevating concerns that the unsuccessful candidate will likely allege fraud, igniting ethnic tensions primed by widespread hate speech online. However, with neither candidate offering significantly meaningful policy differences for Kenya’s electorate, higher rates of voter apathy could potentially mitigate the extent of violence.

Discussing the Increase and Implications of Sandstorms in the Middle East and North Africa

In this week's podcast, join your host Rhiannon Phillips, our Middle East and North Africa Associate Analyst along with Valeria Scuto, our Middle East and North Africa Analyst, and Anastasia Chisholm, our Middle East and North Africa Associate Analyst to discuss the recent increase in sandstorms over the Middle East and North Africa region.

Sandstorms across Iraq and the wider region over recent months have generated disruptions to travel and business operations and prompted a surge in hospital admissions. Though not a new phenomenon, dust and sandstorms in the region are becoming more frequent and severe in their intensity against the backdrop of climate change, population growth and associated conditions including dams along key waterways, overuse of river waters, overgrazing and deforestation.

Developments highlight a crucial need for more cohesive national and regional mitigation and resilience strategies. However, efforts among and between regional governments to cooperate on this issue have so far been unsuccessful in addressing the negative consequences of the dust storms and broader shifts in regional weather patterns. As such, businesses operating in the region will continue to face operational and supply chain risks in the coming months, as well as the likely longer-term decline in overall workforce health and growing climate-related displacement

North Korea: Unfolding Covid crisis amid Pyongyang’s heightened military provocation

The reclusive regime has conducted a record 16 missile tests so far in 2022, including its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch in five years, ratcheting up military provocation and tensions in the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, the country is also experiencing its first official Covid-19 outbreak despite shutting its borders in 2020. Considering North Korea's poor public health infrastructure and high incidence of malnutrition among its unvaccinated population, the pandemic could deal a devastating blow to its fragile economy, and ultimately threatening its national security. Join our team, Guo Yu, Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst and fellow APAC Analysts Hans Horan and Riccardo Cociani, as they discuss how the country’s worsening Covid-19 outbreak could affect its missile and nuclear weapons developments, its relations with South Korea and the US, as well as the far-reaching implications on one of the region’s most volatile geopolitical flashpoints.

Discussing Lebanon’s upcoming Elections

This week join Valeria Scuto, our Middle East Analyst, along with Anastasia Chisholm and Rhiannon Phillips, our Associate Analysts for the Middle East and North Africa to discuss the upcoming elections in Lebanon.

 

Lebanon's elections this Sunday, 15 May, will take place amid a protracted economic crisis and persistent resentment against political elites. Despite the common perception that government corruption and ineptitude are to blame for the country's socio-economic deterioration, many Lebanese residents are uncertain of their ability to change the political status quo through their ballots.

 

Meanwhile, the international community will closely watch electoral processes, amid concerns that the announcement of final results will face delays driven by contestation from losing parties. As such, the weeks following the vote will represent a key flashpoint for domestic unrest. In addition, delays to government formation or obstructions to political and economic reforms will undermine the government's ability to secure third-party donor funding from institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, likely further exacerbating Lebanon's economic collapse in the coming months.

China-Solomon Islands Security Cooperation Agreement

After much media speculation and diplomatic concerns, Beijing and Honiara finally confirmed the signing of a "Security Cooperation Agreement" last week. Although neither government has disclosed the content of the agreement, a draft leaked in March revealed the extent of proposed close cooperation on security and defence affairs, including the possibility of deploying Chinese police and armed forces, as well as military assets to the Pacific island nation. The move has raised concerns amongst other key stakeholders in the region, with Australia, New Zealand, the US, and Japan all voicing strong opposition to the pact. Foreign diplomatic attempts to dissuade Honiara from signing the agreement were to no avail.

This week, join our Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst, Dr Guo Yu, and fellow APAC analysts Riccardo Cociani and Aédán Mordecai, as we discuss the details of this agreement and its geopolitical implications for the region and beyond.