Sibylline Podcasts

The Fallout of the 2022 US Midterm Elections

Join our hosts Konrad Petraitis (Lead Americas Analyst), Sydney Stewart (North America Analyst) and Leo Collins (Dangerous Organisations and Individuals Analyst) as they discuss the ramifications of the 2022 US Midterm elections results.

 

Much to the surprise of many pollsters, political commentators and indeed voters, the 8 November midterm elections delivered an unusual victory to the incumbent Democratic party and the rumoured ‘red wave’ proved to be more of a ripple as Democrats retain control of the Senate while Republicans take control of the House. Our hosts discuss what this new political landscape will mean for future political dynamics, businesses, the economy, extremism and political violence in the United States as we look towards 2024.

Pakistan’s volatile political landscape following the Imran Khan shooting

Join your host, Dr Guo Yu, Sibylline's Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst along with Supriya Ravishankar, our APAC Analyst, to discuss Pakistan's ongoing political instability and the wider economic and security implications.

 

On 3 November, former prime minister and leader of the main opposition party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Imran Khan, was shot and injured during a high-profile anti-government protest rally dubbed the 'long march'. The incident has further inflamed the already elevated tensions between the PTI and the Pakistan Muslim League (N)-led government, with Khan and the PTI accusing incumbent Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the army of being responsible for the 'assassination attempt'. As Khan seeks to return to power while the current government continues to resist calls for an early election, Pakistan's domestic political situation looks set to remain highly volatile in the coming weeks.

Prospects for an ELN-Colombian Government Peace Deal

Join your host Leo Collins, our Organisations and Dangerous Individuals Analyst along with Konrad Petraitis, our Principal Americas Analyst and Eduardo Damm Braga, our Latin America Analyst, to discuss the latest developments in the ELN-Colombian government peace deal.

 

November will mark the start of peace negotiations between Colombia and the ELN. On November 1 in Caracas, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and Colombian President Gustavo Petro met to discuss efforts to improve bilateral ties and set the framework for talks between Bogota and the ELN guerrillas. Both sides are expected to hold talks in Caracas, which are likely to result in a decline in the guerrillas' high-profile crimes, including such as assassinations, kidnappings and IED attacks on government or security personnel.

Discussing the Security Implications of the COP27 Climate Summit

Join your host Benedict Manzin Lead Sub Saharan African Analyst, along with Ahmed Alqarout, our Lead Middle East & Africa Analyst and Anastasia Chisholm, our Middle East and North Africa Analyst to discuss the COP27 conference in Egypt.

Egypt's hosting of the 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27) in South Sinai's coastal resort city of Sharm El Sheikh will take place amid heightened international scrutiny from activist groups. This is largely a result of the government's human rights track record and the crackdown on civil society. Both domestic and international climate, civil rights and human rights activist organisations are almost certain to face obstructions to their COP27-related activities and participation in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, Egyptian authorities have maintained and adopted enhanced measures aimed at mitigating the risk of widespread domestic unrest and the threat of terror attacks on the COP27 venue and nearby soft targets in Sharm El Sheikh. The government's handling of the climate conference will impact its objectives of establishing Egypt as a trusted host country for multilateral summits and events, including Egypt's bids to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup and the 2036 Olympic Games. As such, event sponsors and businesses engaging with Cairo are likely to face elevated brand image risks in the coming months

Discussing Recent Military Provocations by North Korea and Possible Regional Implications

In this week's podcast, join your host, Dr Guo Yu, Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst, and Asia-Pacific Intelligence Analysts Hans Horan and Riccardo Cociani to discuss recent military provocations by North Korea and possible implications for geopolitical risks and business operations.

 

Tensions in and around the Korean Peninsula have risen markedly amid Pyongyang conducting a new wave of missile launches and reports of an imminent nuclear test. As a show of determination to remain a nuclear state, North Korea has also adopted a new nuclear law that seemingly permits the right to 'pre-emptive strike'. In response, the US and its allies – Japan and South Korea – have sought to bolster military cooperation and force readiness through a number of joint exercises.