Sibylline Insight Podcast

Discussing the latest Russian military build-up and the likelihood of war in Ukraine

Last week US and Ukrainian intelligence published warnings over the most recent Russian military build-up along Ukraine's eastern border, predicting that it may be a precursor to a larger military offensive in early 2022. Increasingly heated rhetoric between Moscow, Ukraine and NATO has ramped up regional tensions in recent weeks, with both sides accusing one another of provocations in Donbas and the Black Sea. In this week's Sibylline podcast, Liana Semchuk, our Lead Europe and Eurasia Analyst, is joined by Alex Lord, our Europe and Eurasia Analyst, and Zsofia Wolford, our Europe Analyst, to discuss the latest developments and whether the current tensions will result in conflict.

Discussing the Terrorist Attack on Remembrance Sunday

On 14 November, Remembrance Sunday, a man detonated an improvised explosive device outside Liverpool Women's Hospital in the UK, killing himself just before the national two-minute silence. While the motive behind the attack remains uncertain at this stage, the incident was declared a terrorist incident by security services and precipitated an increase in the UK's Terror Threat Level from "substantial" to "severe", meaning an attack is "highly likely". In this week's Sibylline podcast, Alexander Parsons, our Director of Intelligence, is joined by Alex Lord, Europe and Eurasia analyst, and Zsofia Wolford, Europe associate analyst, to discuss the attack and its impact on the terror threat environment in Europe.

Regional stability further undermined by Sudan‘s disrupted transition and deteriorating military conflict in Ethiopia

Recent developments in the horn of Africa have severely threatened longer-term stability in both Ethiopia and Sudan. In Ethiopia, Tigray rebels have made notable gains against government forces, raising concerns about a potential advance on the capital Addis Ababa. While in Sudan, the 25 October coup is flailing, with military leaders doubting their capability to contain substantial domestic opposition compounded by international isolation.

Discussing the up-and-coming UN Climate Change Conference (COP26)

The UN's 26th Climate Change Conference (COP26) is set to take place in Glasgow between 31 October and 12 November. With environmentalist movements like Extinction Rebellion and Greenpeace seeing it as a make-or-break summit, activist protests and direct actions are highly likely to cause significant disruption to businesses not only in Glasgow but across the UK.

In this week's Sibylline podcast Liana Semchuk, our Lead Europe and Eurasia Analyst, is joined by Alexander Lord, our Europe and Eurasia analyst, and Louis Cox-Brusseau, our Europe analyst, to discuss what we can expect from the summit.

Discussing the Rising Situation in Lebanon

This week join Eloise Scott, our Lead Analyst for the Middle East and Africa and Rhiannon Phillips, our Associate Analyst for the Middle East and North Africa to discuss the rising situation in Lebanon.

In the aftermath of last week’s street violence in Beirut, Lebanon is experiencing a worrying rise in sectarian tensions and aggressive posturing amidst deepening financial crises and enduring political uncertainty. The ongoing investigation into the 2020 Beirut port blast is subject to considerable political pressure, and will likely be a trigger for further mobilisation and protests. Key sectarian fault lines across Lebanon, therefore, remain flashpoints for further confrontations as ethnoreligious tensions spill over into violence.  

China-Taiwan: Persistent Tensions, Possible Flashpoints and Potential Implications

The past few days have seen tensions across the Taiwan Strait rise further as Beijing and Taipei marked their respective national days. China’s air force deployed a record number of warplanes into Taiwan's air defence identification zone (ADIZ), while Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen again defended the island as a de facto democratic, sovereign nation. Beijing's increased political and economic pressure, as well as military posturing, on Taipei takes place against the backdrop of an intensifying China-US strategic rivalry, for which Taiwan remains a key point of contention.

Join our Asia-Pacific analysts, Dr Guo Yu, Aedan Mordecai and Jack Broome to discuss the latest situation concerning Taiwan, and how such persistent cross-strait tensions may evolve in the coming year, assessing possible future flashpoints and business implications.

Discussing the up and coming Elections in Iraq

This week join your host Alexander Parsons, our Senior Analyst along with Valeria Scuto our Middle East and North Africa Analyst and Anastasia Chisholm our Associate Analyst for the Middle East and North Africa to discuss the up and coming elections in Iraq.

Iraq's elections due this Sunday, 10 October, will take place during a period of protracted economic crisis and considerable anti-government public sentiment, which has risen since the government's repression of protest movements in 2019. Strong security measures will be deployed on and around election day, while international observers and regional actors will closely watch electoral processes and results.

Shi'ite groups – including Iran-affiliated factions – are likely to continue to dominate Iraq's fractured political landscape. Likely flashpoints for domestic unrest include the maintenance of the unpopular elite-led status quo and allegations of fraud. In turn, these could delay timelines for government formation and undermine the implementation of political and economic reforms, driving policy risk for businesses and investors in the coming months.

Discussing the upcoming Bundestag elections

Join our host Liana Semchuk, Lead Europe & Eurasia Analyst, along with Louis Cox-Brusseau and Zsofia Wolford our Europe Analysts to discuss the upcoming Bundestag election.

Germany faces one of the most uncertain elections in the country's history due to the fragmentation of votes between mainstream and smaller parties. As of now, Chancellor Angela Merkel's party is set to come only second at the parliamentary election on 26 September due to the plummeting popularity of their candidate for Chancellor, Armin Laschet. The Socialist Democratic Party is expected to gain the most votes, however, it is highly likely that they will need to engage in lengthy coalition talks with the Greens, the business-friendly Free Democratic Party and maybe even the far-left Die Linke party to form a majority government. As such, Germany could see a three-party coalition for the first time, and a possible coalition including the SPD and the Greens could speed up the country's decarbonisation processes, increasing risks for carbon-heavy industries.

Discussing the Coup in Guinea

Join your host Alexander Parsons, our Senior Analyst along with Benedict Manzin our Sub Sahara Africa Analyst and Edie Lipton our Africa Associate Analyst to discuss the coup in Guinea.

The recent overthrow of President Alpha Conde renders Guinea the third country in the region to undergo a coup in the past year. While local partners wish to discourage the repeated use of this tactic, their capacity to effectively penalise coup leaders is constrained as responses are limited by the need to maintain regional stability, in the context of jihadist conflict in the Sahel.

Additionally, while coup leaders claim to represent the demands of a dissatisfied population, they clearly have specific political goals and efforts to maintain their own influence and access to resources may drive tensions with civilian groups seeking greater reform.

Legislative Elections in Russia

This week join your host Edward Johnson, Head of Global Analysis along with Liana Semchuk, our Lead Europe & Eurasia Analyst and Alex Lord, our Europe & Eurasia Analyst to discuss the up and coming Russian elections.

Legislative elections will be held in Russia between 17 – 19 September, with the ruling United Russia highly likely to retain its political dominance. Despite the party's low approval ratings amid prolonged dissatisfaction with socio-economic conditions, the government's use of incentives, targeted repression, and online voting will work in its favour.

Meanwhile, the absence of a clear and unifying opposition figure will ensure that the risk of mass protests is limited, though sporadic mass action cannot be ruled out entirely, should widespread electoral irregularities be reported. As such, policy continuity, greater protectionism of domestic IT businesses, and increasing intolerance of dissent are likely to become more pronounced after the election.